Countdown to new share issuance

[Frolinde]

Dear All,

Just a short message to all the long term holders of shares. Sit on your hands and do not get desperate. Surely there will be a new issuance of shares shortly and we might see another significant dip in the SP, but at some point the bigger players are not helped by a low SP any longer and we will see a reversal of the almost endless declining trend.

Hopefully also Shaun Day will have some more skin-in-the-game at that point, because his latest share purchase was a clear sign of the pain ahead.

Cheers,

F

[RationalAssessor]

Dear Frolinde

Intrigued by your view that there "will be a new issuance of shares shortly and we might see another significant dip in the SP"

With around 60M cash and secured loans, I'm not sure why GGP would currently need to issue more shares.

Could you please explain why you think a further issue of shares is required.

Cheers,

RA

[Frolinde]

Hi RA,

We are clearly in the grasp of some bigger play. If rumours are true that Telfer, and possibly the part of Havieron that NC holds, will be divested after a NC takeover, it would not surprise me if part of that divestment is bought by GGP and this is (partly) financed by the issuance of new GGP shares.

Pushing the SP lower towards a level where you have the choice to purchase an even bigger share of a promising company is a valid strategy me thinks.

Cheers,

F

[RationalAssessor]

Hi Frolinde

Whilst I agree that there is a chance, I'd say it's very low......lots of pieces to fall into place.

1. Newmont have to be willing to increase their offer for Newcrest.
2. Newcrest BoD would need to agree that it is a fair offer and put it to their shareholders.
3. NCM shareholders would need to vote it through.
4. Newmont would need to decide they want to divest the Paterson assets.
5. GGP BoD would need to determine whether they want to go for it.
6. If (big IF) 1-5 come off I suspect it would be some months down the road, by which time we may have had an ASX listing, a revised MRE and possibly a DFS.

Even then, in order to issue enough shares to get funding, I suspect that it would need to be put to a shareholder vote.

Certainly not "surely" as you suggest nor would it be "shortly".

ATB RA

[Hydrogen]

Hi Frolinde

IF new shares were to be issued THEN why would this need to be at a discount... ?
It could even be a significant premium. This is becuase GGP already secured backing from major Banks and industrial investors at 8.2p
These investors are not going to allow their positions to be diluted easily.

IMO any future placements would have to be at a premium now as we are well out of the 'danger zone' with Newcrest.
For example, I am in another Australian play FOG - last year made a placement at a 30% Premium to a billionaire US investor
Becuase the guy wanted to be part of the opportunity...

This is a very different story now.

Shaun has stated the 3mt mine can run at 400koz to 450koz of gold per year.
He has also stated his preferred method would be to install a haul shaft.

But what people are missing is this >>>>>>>>>>

I have spoken in detail to the deep mine shaft design engineer at the SXX Woodside mine a guy called James Heslington - look him up. He's a really nice guy works for DMC a shaft sinking company in Sudbury Canada now: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-heslington/

With the addition of a Haul shaft system ( could be 2 x 4.5m blind bore or 1 x 6-7m single shaft )... A single shaft of around 6.5m diameter can move up to 6.5mt per annum over 1km vertical... The Havieron SLOS mine, like the Olympic dam mine, has the opportunity to run up to 9 or 10Mt per annum for 15-20 years - which at 4g/t that's WELL OVER 1 moz of gold > That will put us in the top 3 gold producers in Australia.

Even at 3.7 g/t 9000000 x 3.7 x 0.92 (recovery) /31.1 = 985koz of gold
(grade starts off high / outstanding with lots of copper at the 430m depth level , dips an bit and then gets better with depth don't forget)

And that's just the SLOS.... Let that sink in

This mine - due to it's beautifully vertical structure and nature has the opportunity to produce 9-10mt per year... 5x the current metrics.

NOW TBF the mine's mill is usually the limiting factor... BUT Telfer is of a scale that can handle up to 24Mt down to 0.3g/t

So we have oodles of spare capacity...

When this is released to market... ( in the form of official documentation ) what does that tonnage / capacity do to GGPs returns?

IT blows the doors off... on a 100% basis we would be turning over $1.9bn in cash = take 20% of that as profit ($384m) on a PE of 18 = a $6.9bn dollar Mcap company

It's going to take time, but that's where this is heading.

THen you have the Bulk underground blaock cave opportunity running for the Eastern Breccia in tandem at some point to add in....

There's your £1 a share put it that way.

There's a reason the Fortescue metals team arrived en-mass

[Frolinde]

HI RA and Hydro,

Look, i am not disputing that GGP overall is very promising. The SP action however is pointing towards some more pain in the near term. Moreover, recent actions from management, although sensible in regards to longer term company goals, have not been reassuring for the SP in the shorter term. There is very little skin-in-the-game, we have exchanged our previous master NC with a new one and we are at their will in regards to future share dilution / share issuance.

I am holding on, but Gervais not selling to NC came at a cost of long and intense grind that is not over yet.

Cheers,

F

[Hydrogen]

I think you will find that any SP pain is nothing to do with the company or shaun day. The entire PM market and miners have been under pressure all week
( due to interest rate rises.. which totally smashed gold form 1960 to 1813. )

If People are looking at the SP and thinking there is a problem then just look at the wider market and other juniors. They are all in the same boat GDXJ was down 4-5% the other day ... that's an index of producers... We are a development company with no revenue significant debt and 12moths to production.

That is the issue. Gervaise is history... And guess what we just found two new systems at Scally....

I am in for £1 maybe even £2... and 1 moz plus production. And that will take ~3 years.

Check my record. Two years ago, I said it would take 5 years.

Talking about pain is just soft - we are investing in Precious metals and mining... If you can't take short term pain maybe get out of the sector.

The wider market is in trouble and the gold price is about to go again to the next level. That sentiment changes everything.

AND THe next two scally holes could easily hit the jackpot... under 60m of cover. Go figure that. Right next door to a huge development. and massive copper Silver gold Supergene deposit

[HoldForGold]

Great to see the informative replies by some erudite posters to what is IMVHO a low level troll post- I commend their evenhandedness, and valuable they are too to to the people who may be concerned this guff.

[Frolinde]

Hi All,

So new shares will be issued shortly. What surprises me in the RNS this morning was the lack of context provided. It was a very poor message. However, this might actually be good news. My reasoning would be that SD has plans what to do with the money, but he is not able to share that with us. So his only option was to refute the rumours.

Exciting times ahead!

F

[Hydrogen]

The market reaction to this was quite bizarre. And whilst Gdxj was down a fair bit yesterday also , it felt to me like a deliberate targeted leak with the timing, (and not some clumsy mistake).

They all know - ie brokers and institutions - at the highest level about equity raises and so this leak was deliberate imo. Someone wanted it lower today saw an opportunity and took aim via a newspaper.

But the reality is, we are fully funded with plenty of runway into Havieron construction. I see Starbright (who admits he knows nothing of mining) is advocating for huge cost overruns when in fact the inflation cycle peaked in March 22 and we’re now actively seeing deflation across industrial sectors. WTI hit $63 last week. A far cry from $130 odd peak last year. Steel costs are down 50% back to Jan 2020 prices https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/steel so labour would be the only inflationary cost. Cement is also falling rapidly now.

Further…. The very large Havieron PFS mine budget always seemed overly ‘expensive’ to me, especially when directly compared to other very similar remote deep mines like Oz minerals Carapateena, so I suspect it’s not to do with Havieron.

Potentially this suspected mine capex cash inflating - was another part of the dishonesty and hatchet job PFS that characterised the demise of NCM - and, which now, ironically, a year or so on could be used by Shaun to clinically dissect Havieron away from them rather beautifully.

I fully expect Hav mine build costs could come down significantly when Shaun and Jimmy actually take over and I will be exploring this in more detail in the coming week.

So If ggp needs some more new money to lubricate a much bigger transaction, then so be it.

I can think of a potential background, early stage conversation, between ggp and our JV partner in waiting Newmont and some select new ASX investors that would require $100m in equity…

Can you? It’s not about keeping the lights on is it…?

Further Day was crystal clear that BofA were not instructed (so this is all speculative).

I’ll leave you with this… food for thought from a mining analyst.