This is a very different story now. Adding the Haul Shaft was Key

[Hydrogen]

Shaun has stated the 3mt mine can run at 400koz to 450koz of gold per year.

Which is based on a predicted initial head grade of 4.9g/t AU equivalent so (4.9 x 3,000,000 x 0.94 recovery / 31.1 ) = 444koz PA

I think Shaun's view having closely studied the ore body (and which Bamps agrees with) is that the highest consistent grades appear so far to be the upper initial sections at the 430-500m level of higher grade SE Crescent zones

Now even at slightly lower head grades this is a huge high density low footprint bulk mine

3mt at 4.2g/t equivalent 380koz (4.2 x 3,000,000 x 0.94 recovery / 31.1 ) = 380koz
Even at 3.7g/t thats 335oz PA (3.7g/t x 3,000,000 x 0.94 recovery / 31.1 ) = 330koz

Shaun has also stated his preferred method would be to install a haul shaft.

But what people are missing is this >>>>>>>>>>

I have spoken in detail to the principle deep mine shaft design engineer at the SXX Woodside mine, a guy called James Heslington - look him up. He's a really nice guy works for DMC a shaft sinking company in Sudbury Canada now: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-heslington/

With the addition of a Haul shaft system ( could be either be 2 x 4.5m blind bore or 1 x 6-7m single shaft )...

BUT A single shaft of around 6.5m diameter can move up to 6.5mt per annum over 1km vertical... The Havieron SLOS mine, like the Olympic dam mine, has the potential to run up to 9 or 10Mt per annum for 15-20 years - which at 4.2g/t Au Equivalent that's WELL OVER 1 moz of gold PA.

> That will put us in the top 3 gold producers in Australia.

Even at 3.7 g/t 9000000 x 3.7 x 0.92 (recovery) /31.1 = 985koz of gold
(grade starts off high / outstanding with lots of copper at the 430m depth level , dips an bit and then gets better with depth don't forget)

And that's just the SLOS.... Now Let that sink in

This deposit - due to it's beautifully vertical structure, and high density, high metal tenor and compact footprint lends self perfectly to the opportunity to produce 9-10mt per year... Just like Olympic Dam

THATS over 5x the current PFS metrics.

NOW TBF the mine's mill is usually the limiting factor... BUT Telfer is of a scale that can handle up to 22Mt down to 0.3g/t

So we have oodles of spare capacity...

When this is released to market... ( in the form of official documentation ) what does that tonnage / capacity do to GGPs Debt / Cash returns?

IT blows the doors off... on a 100% basis we would be turning over $1.9bn in cash = Even just taking 20% of that as profit ($384m) on a PE of 18 =

THAT'S a $6.9bn dollar Mcap company

What if we could take 40% of that 1.9bn profit and handle the relevant Telfer 100% purchase debt.... thats almost double the macap again.

Then... What if gold does go o $3000/oz...?

It's going to take time, but that's where this is heading.

THen you have the Bulk underground block cave opportunity running for the Eastern Breccia in tandem at some point to contemplate....

There's your £1 a share put it that way.

THIS is the reason the Fortescue Metals team arrived en-mass.

This is the reason Paul Hallam and Otto Richter jumped ship from NCM to GGP

And why Jimmy Wilson and Mark Barnaba arrived...

Jesus this is going to be massive

ALL - IMO... DYOR etc...

[Tonyk747]

If it's producing that much gold the fear would be it craters the price of gold

[Redirons]

Hydro - thank you so much for the time, thought and research you share with all of us.
Even if your calculations verge on being over-optimistic, I feel sure you have done enough to prove that our SP is going to smash its previous ATH and I’m sure there are many of us that would just be grateful for that to start with.
My objective was to see my own retirement funded comfortably courtesy of the jam and cream GGP would provide on top and then to gift my SIPP down the family line for my son and then grandchildren to benefit from - on the basis that the lifetime of GGP (providing we don’t get bought out) would see a grand future of dividends and SP rises that will last for decades.
Your post this morning gives me a warm feeling that my objectives could well be realised.
Thank you as you are part of that elite band on here that not only research and assimilate information, but then selflessly share it with everybody else. None of you “preach” or try to force your opinions on others, but you give us lesser folk the opportunity to make up our own minds as to what is best for us. Thank you again.
Red.

[Hydrogen]

Hi Redirons,

Yes - The figures I have used clearly represent optimal peak theoretical production run.

And they are only a rational opinion, if optomistic - but genuinely gleaned from talking to experts in the field and making comparison to similar size mines.

IMO there was a reason Sandeep was once singing like a canary about Havieron - recall him saying "we're getting 10x the grades we've seen in the region"..? and you know it is my opinion, that the PFS was deliberately 'super lean' and engineered to facilitate a lowball take-over of GGP.

The caveat is it's hard to be certain, just what the peak flow, from Havieron could be, until we see more documents, but these estimates come from well informed people with direct experience of operating large gold mines. My concern is the significant cost of the haulage to Telfer its not that efficient hauling ore 50km.

Today Bamps shared this today EV Mine haulage road trains being tested at Oz minerals Carapateena ( a mine I often compare Havieron to from a cost perspective). https://thedriven.io/2023/04/18/austral ... ttery/amp/

There's also the timescale to commission, and complete a shaft, is probably circa 18-months or more depending on the sinking method. Some such as blind bore are much faster than others... and so maybe less than 18 months, depending lead time for the shaft boring machines.

But if they green light it in the DFS... As this info might suggest - and to be fair it 100% makes absolute sense they do, and is in line with proper thinking on efficiency + cost effectives increases all mine metrics, such as NAV and IRR - then why wait?

Just crack on with the shaft and get built and running by late 2024 early 2025. Then ramp up from 3mt up the decline to 5 / 6 / 7 / 8mt Steadily over 2025/6...

Meanwhile the Eastern breccia block cave PFS can be delivered.

[Wasred15]

Indebted for your research together with your generosity by sharing your findings. Great food for thought. Thank you.

[CK 1974]

Appreciate all the research and enthusiasm hopefully we’ll find out in the feasibility study.
£1 party on the other hand would take 3-5 more years minimum I’d say, can’t even see us above 20p till end of next year not deramping or questioning your research just being realistic. We had our chance to sell in the 30’s, stupidly didn’t. Now all we can do is wait and it’s looking like a long long wait unfortunately

[Hydrogen]

We did... fail to sell. But i think there was an obscure reason why we hit the 30s also.
The situation was caused by inelastic stock supply as forced buyers came in to buy GGP like Blackrock and VanEck.
Same thing happened to Tesla when it entered the SP500.
Today Sentiment is rock bottom again in the mining sector.
GDXJ's mcap was around 5.5bn when GGP was added. Today it's $3.9bn
Gervaise selling then turned that all around.
Thats' the frustrating part.
Andrew Forrest held all his stock (and so it went up 162,000%)

[Redirons]

Sorry Hydro - what went up 162,000%?
Thanks.

[Hydrogen]

Hi Redirons

Andrew Forrests' Fortescue Metals Group FMV (it's actually risen since I last measured it)

From Sept 2002 to today.... its up over 278,000%

£10k invested in September 2002 would be worth £27m today

Nothing like backing a wining team:

[Redirons]

That’ll do me buddy!! Thanks
Red.

[Volvic]

Wow l love the potential of GGP to be huge,
Great research from you guys.

[Hydrogen]

I've been in conversation with a few people about why Havieron SLOS is capable of up to around 10MT PA, as some think its unlikely. (this obviously excludes the block cave)

As a consequence, I decided to work a calculation through, for the benefit of myself and other holders, who would like a better understanding of the potential numbers. in the process I've asked an experienced gold miner to assist with my calculations.

The long SLOS ore stopes of Havierorn should be huge - around 60 to 90m long ( I'm not certain as to the exact volume but something like 90m x 4.5m x 5m or wider) sections, blasted as a cut, say once a week.

Once the dust settles, these are cleared and mucked out by 20 tonne Sandvik underground shovel loaders to a dedicated ore pass ( ore drop) into automated skips and loaded into the hoist. Multiple Stopes would be worked at once to produce 21,000-23,000 tonne. The rest is loaded into a fleet of approximately 10-20 x 20t or 40t (TBC) Sandvik underground haul trucks, travelling 6-7km round trip up the decline to the surface ROM pad.

Havieron Ore HOISTING:

A single electric double rope 1000m x 6.5 m diameter vertical shaft, using 20 ton skips, will run continuously, travelling a 16 m/sec. Speed 1 tip every 1.5mins, 40 tips/hr. 960 tips/day. 960x20 tonne = 19,200 tonne s/day 19,200 x 365 = 7 million-ish metric tonne/Yr.

Just from a single 6.5m shaft... Let that sink in. The system runs 24/7 365 days a year, unless they are shutting down for safety checks.

I have double checked these numbers and I feel content my applied parameters are in realms of likely and that 6-7 million tonne from a 1000m shaft is possible and highly likely. This is in addition to the 3MT trucked up the decline using the 20/40 tonne Sandviks.

So its easy to see with the addition of a haul shaft 10mt is feasible.

The caveat is that the really high grades at the 430 level will be mined out initially, potentially in the first years while the shaft is built , which should take around 18-24 months - depending on the shaft sinking method. This means we will potentially be into slightly lower grade, deeper down the mine. But we are still highly, highly - well frankly mega economic.

To help give context, consider this open Pit Canadian mine - called Copper Mountain ( in South British Columbia) recently valued at $550m and actually just in the last few weeks sold to Hudbay), that I was looking at yesterday.

They are economically mining 0.2% copper and 0.09 g/t gold (with a few other credits) with a 0.1% copper cut off.

https://www.mining.com/copper-mountain- ... on-tonnes/

"The latest update sees the Copper Mountain mine grow it's measured and indicated resources to 1.1 billion tonnes averaging 0.22% copper, 0.09 g/t gold and 0.64 g/t silver. Total contained metals of 5.5 billion lb. of copper, 3.4 million oz. of gold and 23.4 million oz. of silver each represent 70%, 68% and 62% increases over the previous estimate"

Havieron totally kicks ass compared against this, grade wise...and at these grade cut offs Havieron would be 1.5bn tonne zone easily opposed to the Current PFS which is for 33mt or something. if broadly 1g/t gold is equal to 1% copper then we have 10-20x the grades they have.

As an example @ 10mt Havieron production will produce :

At higher grades: 10MT at 3.2g/t gold = 934,603 oz PA
Lower grades : 10mt at 2.5g/t gold = 730,158 oz PA
Lowest grade (crackle breccia waste) 10mt @ 0.3g/t = 96,0000 oz Pa (0.3g/t is the cutoff at Telfer)

An Australian mid tier producer Gold Road resources produce about 300koz for 9mt at a peak grade of 1.2 g/t and they are valued at about US $1bn

Which ever way you cut it, this is still a huge mine. And I mean huge, muti-decade mine.

Good to see Mintwit's Miner deck now finally highlighting GGP's fantastic hits : https://twitter.com/MinerDeck/status/16 ... 40/photo/1

GGP hitting monsters - well into the top 10 Gold drilling highlights hit for all of Australia — for all of Q2 drilling.

[Redirons]

Brilliant Hydro - just brilliant - thankyou again.
Red.

[Hydrogen]

JUST a quick heads up...

I refer you to the latest company presentation:

" The Havieron PFS only considers a small portion of the Mineral Resource inventory within the SE Crescent zone of the Havieron deposit and there is potential to increase the mining rate at Havieron to 3Mtpa or more."

IMO - The key section here is... 'or more"

May I NOW kindly refer you to the Greatland Sustainability report 2023: https://ibb.co/DGVsZ4F

hTTps://greatlandgold.com/wp-content/up ... t-2023.pdf

Page 15: Havieron - "Underground mine Haulage via electric powered shaft and winder".

Now, where in the NCM PFS does it mention an 'electric haulage shaft and winder'...?

It doesn't. Because obviously it is not in the NCM PFS.

But the question stands... is it in the DFS?

Which appears to be in the process of be fine tuned ... or 'rewritten'?

AND I mean, it's not like Newcrest are 'immune' to using electric winders and haul shafts. After all they have one of the Australia's largest electric winders: the 1126m shaft at Telfer...sunk by Byrnecut - ( it's a really huge one too 7.05 m diameter capable of lifting 5mt per annum)

https://ibb.co/QbVDKF0

https://www.byrnecut.com/services/shaft-sinking/

Like I say if you are short.. you might just want to get out of Dodge and Fast.

some further notes on the 2005 project :
The Telfer hoist shaft when completed will have a finished diameter of 7.1 metres and extend to a depth of 1170 metres below the collar. The shaft will be fully concrete lined and will later be equipped for hoisting ore from the Telfer deeps at a rate of five million tonnes per annum. The shaft when completed will be the largest shaft ever completed in Australia on a volumetric basis.

[Hydrogen]

Telfer has a 7.05 m concrete lined haul shaft built in 2005 to a depth of 1100m... Newmont just confirmed in their annual report that it can move 900t per hour. (presumably this applies to an optimised 24/7 basis 365 day a year ) albeit there must be down time to service and change ropes

This images is from Newmont's Feb 2024 annual report (which BTW makes no mention of 'forecasting' Telfer's ASICat $2500 so I have no idea where Bamps got that number from? - although it does confirm the Telfer AISC was $1988 )

Back to the Shaft - In principle That means Telfer's 7m deep haulage shaft can move 7.5Mt per annum. running 24/7 365. So each metre of shaft diameter corresponds to about 1Mt of payload (broadly) thus a 6m shaft could haul 6mt, in principle, a 5mt shaft could haul 5mt , a 4m shaft 4mt and so on.

Blind raise boring can drill shafts in weeks/months from 1m to 6.5 m maximum. very quickly and very efficiently.

[Shinybits]

Hydrogen I think that might be a little optimistic regarding the availability for the winder at Telfer. I say that in the context that the winder is less of an issue than the circumstances that surround feeding it.

For the winder itself, the cables basically never need to be changed, there are four of them and each one is capable of holding the cart weight on its own so the safety margin is impressive (and they’re checked thoroughly on a regular basis).

In Hav you’d get better use from it but at Telfer, the UG crusher availability is a bigger problem. Even aside from regular maintenance (mantle rebuilds etc) it is increasingly bogged with rock bolts etc caught in the dirt from blasting areas adjacent to previously mined locations.

Minprovise (a crusher maintenance contractor) has even suggested quoting to replace the existing gyro crusher with a large jaw crusher, which is far less prone to bogging from such debris, but I doubt that was ever seriously considered (not to say it won’t be if a new owner intends to keep the UG going for a number of years).

Twice a day at shift change, during blasting, nobody is allowed near the area for (I think) an hour before and two hours after the blast, so that’s an extra 6 hours a day that material cannot be fed to the crusher and into the buckets.

My figures may be a little off but I’m pretty confident the hours available for the winder to be utilized are, through no fault of its own, quite restricted due to other influences.

[Lennie]

Shiny bits .. I worked in a copper mine 4450 ft deep with ore being extracted on various levels fro 1380 .. down to 4400 . In all my time there the conveyor belt and hoists never stopped unless there was a fault, when mining on different levels there is a continuous flow of ore to the crusher and hence the skips and hoist. Just my observation.

[Shinybits]

Yep fair call, I’ve never been in an underground mine. But I do know that telfer’s UG crusher has a lot of down time from being bogged, though as you say they maybe feed the crusher from different levels to where blasting is taking place?

Utilisation also depends on the COS not being too full, ie train one mills need to be running as well as train one surface crusher. This is because the UG and crusher 1 dirt are blended to get the grade that train 1 is set up to process. So if crusher 1 or the T1 mills are down either planned or not, they have to stop the underground feed once the ore pile gets too full.

Complex symphony but by and large seems to work!

[Hydrogen]

Hi Folks -

Some Useful information here thanks - It's nice to be taking to people with real experience.

TBF Shiny bits - I'm not even certain you even need a an underground crusher for a hoist skip and shaft system - albeit jaw crusher sounds better!! if you need one - but my underground mining pal (with extensive experience gained in big deep South Africa mines) says in the systems he used and worked the ore was simply dropped down quite large vertical ore passes (chutes) between levels and essentially crushes itself at the bottom under gravity into sizes small enough lumps for the haul skips. You want a bit of density to get more mass in each load. Fines take up more volume.

However underground conveyor would of course require a crusher , to get material travelling on a belt system.

NB I'm Not a miner and have no direct experience - just to trying to pull together research from people who do know.

But my hope is that a 4-5m diameter blind raise bore shaft could be quickly sunk next to havieron relatively cheaply and quickly - and lift some 4mt or thereabout extra from deeper level - thus taking pressure of the decline traffic. Further i noted that in the environmental statements an Electric winder was specified at Havieron as it's obviously more efficient than diesel. You could have several 4-5-6 m shafts running as per Olympic dam

[Hydrogen]

Some have said its not possible to Haul 6mt to Telfer - it would require and overland conveyor or rail...

Not so 5 of these trucks could handle 3mt PA

10 of these Autonomous 330t capacity haul trucks would move 6mt fully autonomously.

https://www.australianmining.com.au/fir ... slow-iron/

Again I thought it may be a push but looks like this is another key.

How's about a DFS with a a 4.5m Haul shaft moving 4.5mt and a further 2mt up the decline - thats a 6.5MT mine

All seems possible, in principle.