Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
I am sure that Havieron will be a successful mine over many decades. Less sure that existing GGP shareholders will be big beneficiaries. I could see how it could work when riding in the box seat with Newcrest, but the propositions under discussion here are a long way from that now.
Thank you for the constructive responses. Keep ‘em coming.
Thank you for the constructive responses. Keep ‘em coming.
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
Francis - I’ve read your posts with interest but are you perhaps a pessimist by nature? Where big business is involved and let’s face it, Havieron will hopefully prove to be huge, then like you I can be suspicious that the lowly PI may get trodden over. However, Shaun’s actions ALWAYS seem to show that he puts us firmly in the know. He set up a TH in London for 5th March before the news broke that Newmont were divesting Telfer/Hav - he was surely tipped off and the first thing he does is jump on a plane to talk to us direct.
So whilst your thoughts might be right, I’m going to hold on to my optimistic nature coupled by my own observations of how Shaun seems to operating and trust that Greatland PI’s will be shown due respect for investing in Greatland when it was just barely born!! Fingers crossed - there’s certainly enough to go around to keep everyone happy imho!!
So whilst your thoughts might be right, I’m going to hold on to my optimistic nature coupled by my own observations of how Shaun seems to operating and trust that Greatland PI’s will be shown due respect for investing in Greatland when it was just barely born!! Fingers crossed - there’s certainly enough to go around to keep everyone happy imho!!
Redirons
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
I doubt anyone still invested here thought we would be in this position. We are all worried in some form or another and welcome any discussions with what could or could not go wrong, I’d like to think Shaun has interests of existing shareholders at the forefront of his mind, only way to ascertain that would be to try talking to him at the th meet.
But while we all have our concerns, why is it Francis that every single post is either to try to discredit hydrogen or try to find every conceivable problem or fault with anything Ggp does? If there’s no way Shaun or Ggp can benefit from here why are you still invested??
But while we all have our concerns, why is it Francis that every single post is either to try to discredit hydrogen or try to find every conceivable problem or fault with anything Ggp does? If there’s no way Shaun or Ggp can benefit from here why are you still invested??
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
In my thoughts about the possibilities where we go in the current situation I have considered in previous posts
1. The real value of the Telfer package.
2. The economics of Newmont's proposed sale of their 5 mines excluding Telfer, where I consider the full $2 billion will be realised, leaving the Telfer Package and the Coffee Gold project at having very little value. In coming to this conclusion I have only looked that the value they put on Newcrest per Koz and the amount they want to realise per Koz for the disposals.
I now look at
3. The GGP board. I think the GGP board, is trusted by Australia in the circles that matter. In any deal of the magnitude that this will be if (and I say if) GGP can pull it off, it will be the BOD that Shaun has collected that will make the difference, we knew they were recruited in order to grow GGP, we did not know how and when, lets hope this is the start of it.
4. I now have to query the timing of the Town Hall meeting in London, on 20 February Shaun posted that he was trying to get the town Hall meeting on the 5 March, 2 weeks prior to the meeting, does anyone know why visit UK in March, I think other Town Hall's have been when traveling (for other reasons), or at points where explaining developments to Shareholders was a good move as the business develops, as with the proposed ASX listing and corporate restructuring.
I speculate again given my previous postings, the the date was not accidental, and could well be in conjunction with Newmont's announcement of 22 March regarding Telfer and Havieron. I did in May last year state this "it could be that discussions have happened or are ongoing." I hope that I am correct and since Newmont made the original statements about only keeping their definition of Tier 1 assets, that our BOD have been hard at work dotting I's and crossing T's, it would I assume take 6 Months for GGP to get their ducks in a line in such a situation.
Not long to go now to find out why the sudden announcement of the Town Hall meeting, I am sure with the NDA's that would be in place Shaun would have fully known, what was in the Newmont statement a few days before hand .
What a pity I cannot get to it being in Spain at present, I think all shareholder that can should attend it is a good experience.
1. The real value of the Telfer package.
2. The economics of Newmont's proposed sale of their 5 mines excluding Telfer, where I consider the full $2 billion will be realised, leaving the Telfer Package and the Coffee Gold project at having very little value. In coming to this conclusion I have only looked that the value they put on Newcrest per Koz and the amount they want to realise per Koz for the disposals.
I now look at
3. The GGP board. I think the GGP board, is trusted by Australia in the circles that matter. In any deal of the magnitude that this will be if (and I say if) GGP can pull it off, it will be the BOD that Shaun has collected that will make the difference, we knew they were recruited in order to grow GGP, we did not know how and when, lets hope this is the start of it.
4. I now have to query the timing of the Town Hall meeting in London, on 20 February Shaun posted that he was trying to get the town Hall meeting on the 5 March, 2 weeks prior to the meeting, does anyone know why visit UK in March, I think other Town Hall's have been when traveling (for other reasons), or at points where explaining developments to Shareholders was a good move as the business develops, as with the proposed ASX listing and corporate restructuring.
I speculate again given my previous postings, the the date was not accidental, and could well be in conjunction with Newmont's announcement of 22 March regarding Telfer and Havieron. I did in May last year state this "it could be that discussions have happened or are ongoing." I hope that I am correct and since Newmont made the original statements about only keeping their definition of Tier 1 assets, that our BOD have been hard at work dotting I's and crossing T's, it would I assume take 6 Months for GGP to get their ducks in a line in such a situation.
Not long to go now to find out why the sudden announcement of the Town Hall meeting, I am sure with the NDA's that would be in place Shaun would have fully known, what was in the Newmont statement a few days before hand .
What a pity I cannot get to it being in Spain at present, I think all shareholder that can should attend it is a good experience.
With GGP for the long term, for my Children, Grand Children and the Great Grand Children, put simply the Tribe
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
It is my opinion - and I may be wrong - that most probably both the Futtbucker and Francis 'accounts' which i have various run ins with over the past two years were set up here with one purpose in mind: to carefully and deliberately counter or discredit me and while simultaneously sow subtle doubts in the minds of PIs.
All Just IIMO.
Just as others have also deduced/detected, given their posting track record. Any reference to me is immediately removed form LSE by the Moderatos due to 6th 5 in 5 algorithm but they have to be more careful here.
They rarely debate are add any constructive thoughts - if they are genuinely invested I kindly suggest they sell up immediately as they are obviously very unhappy. Perhaps they should reinvest where they would be happier ?
I am a genuine investor with millions of shares stock and 'ding ding' a long position here since 2018.
I have published holding at various times across my various accounts..
All Just IIMO.
Just as others have also deduced/detected, given their posting track record. Any reference to me is immediately removed form LSE by the Moderatos due to 6th 5 in 5 algorithm but they have to be more careful here.
They rarely debate are add any constructive thoughts - if they are genuinely invested I kindly suggest they sell up immediately as they are obviously very unhappy. Perhaps they should reinvest where they would be happier ?
I am a genuine investor with millions of shares stock and 'ding ding' a long position here since 2018.
I have published holding at various times across my various accounts..
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
My thoughts in Purple
Rotherby wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:05 pm
In my thoughts about the possibilities where we go in the current situation I have considered in previous posts
1. The real value of the Telfer package. I suspect the whole lot - Telfer and 70% of Hav could be bought for - circa $400m - my guess
2. The economics of Newmont's proposed sale of their 5 mines excluding Telfer, where I consider the full $2 billion will be realised, leaving the Telfer Package and the Coffee Gold project at having very little value. In coming to this conclusion I have only looked that the value they put on Newcrest per Koz and the amount they want to realise per Koz for the disposals. they key fact is that Every Koz that Telfer Produced cost a lot more and is with a lot less than every Koz Cadia produced so the explains the harsh valuation.
I now look at
3. The GGP board. I think the GGP board, is trusted by Australia in the circles that matter. In any deal of the magnitude that this will be if (and I say if) GGP can pull it off, it will be the BOD that Shaun has collected that will make the difference, we knew they were recruited in order to grow GGP, we did not know how and when, lets hope this is the start of it. Fully Agree
4. I now have to query the timing of the Town Hall meeting in London, on 20 February Shaun posted that he was trying to get the town Hall meeting on the 5 March, 2 weeks prior to the meeting, does anyone know why visit UK in March, I think other Town Hall's have been when traveling (for other reasons), or at points where explaining developments to Shareholders was a good move as the business develops, as with the proposed ASX listing and corporate restructuring. Shaun does travel across the world at this time due to the BMO conference 28th Feb in the US - but I agree that conversations have been ongoing for many many months. Shaun has basically said or implied as much describing his good relation with the Newmont Team form his days at Northern Star
I speculate again given my previous postings, the the date was not accidental, and could well be in conjunction with Newmont's announcement of 22 March regarding Telfer and Havieron. I did in May last year state this "it could be that discussions have happened or are ongoing." I hope that I am correct and since Newmont made the original statements about only keeping their definition of Tier 1 assets, that our BOD have been hard at work dotting I's and crossing T's, it would I assume take 6 Months for GGP to get their ducks in a line in such a situation. Indeed - I think there's a strong probability this is in the bag now
Not long to go now to find out why the sudden announcement of the Town Hall meeting, I am sure with the NDA's that would be in place Shaun would have fully known, what was in the Newmont statement a few days before hand . Agree - TBF its been his plan for a long time - just never thought it would happen
What a pity I cannot get to it being in Spain at present, I think all shareholder that can should attend it is a good experience.
Last edited by Hydrogen on Tue Feb 27, 2024 12:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
This has been on the cards a long time Rotherby - look at my post here from Feb 23 and June 2022 almost two years ago:
'Consolidation' being the search term :
https://ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=2991#p2991
https://ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=3718#p3718
100% a year in the making....
'Consolidation' being the search term :
https://ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=2991#p2991
https://ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=3718#p3718
100% a year in the making....
Last edited by Hydrogen on Tue Feb 27, 2024 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
Hydrogen
As you say you did not think the events we are talking about would happen. I agree Shaun has had this in mind and he is much closer to the coal face than me, not sure about you.
I only started looking at the possibilities with this tread last year when Newmont said they would devest none Tier 1 assets when I started this tread, then REDIRONS prompted me to continue my thoughts, and all of this is just my thoughts and could be completely wrong.
I try to look at things from all directions, hence looking at the disposals that Newmont have declared and their value as if the other 5 would raise the $2 billion, as well as trying to value the package, it gives a good indication as to the projects and Telfer value.
You could be right about the value of the Telfer package I understand that 10 years ago Newcrest could not dispose of Telfer and I assume then it was a producing mine. (I assume now the Telfer package will be all Newmont's assets (ex Newcrest), in the Patterson including JV's and tenement rights, they is no point in holding them if they are not going to explore, success in any of these may have strings attached but they will be minimal so as to encourage the exploitation.)
I am not sure your figure is not a bit expensive for what it is considering the substantial risks both reinstatement and the failure of the Havieron project or any other part of the package, not being negative but exploring and unground mining is not a simple processes and has a lot of risks, in my dreams I see a price of $1 single.
Again just my thoughts.
As you say you did not think the events we are talking about would happen. I agree Shaun has had this in mind and he is much closer to the coal face than me, not sure about you.
I only started looking at the possibilities with this tread last year when Newmont said they would devest none Tier 1 assets when I started this tread, then REDIRONS prompted me to continue my thoughts, and all of this is just my thoughts and could be completely wrong.
I try to look at things from all directions, hence looking at the disposals that Newmont have declared and their value as if the other 5 would raise the $2 billion, as well as trying to value the package, it gives a good indication as to the projects and Telfer value.
You could be right about the value of the Telfer package I understand that 10 years ago Newcrest could not dispose of Telfer and I assume then it was a producing mine. (I assume now the Telfer package will be all Newmont's assets (ex Newcrest), in the Patterson including JV's and tenement rights, they is no point in holding them if they are not going to explore, success in any of these may have strings attached but they will be minimal so as to encourage the exploitation.)
I am not sure your figure is not a bit expensive for what it is considering the substantial risks both reinstatement and the failure of the Havieron project or any other part of the package, not being negative but exploring and unground mining is not a simple processes and has a lot of risks, in my dreams I see a price of $1 single.
Again just my thoughts.
With GGP for the long term, for my Children, Grand Children and the Great Grand Children, put simply the Tribe
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
With this from the trav and Matty thread
This culd well be a pointer o what is going to be announced next week,
This culd well be a pointer o what is going to be announced next week,
Hydrogen wrote: ↑Tue Feb 27, 2024 11:43 am And TimberTrader has it - the first Newmont deal over the line -
"Fury Gold Mines (TSX, NYSE: FURY) announced Monday that the company and affiliates of Newmont (NYSE: NEM, TSE: NGT) have entered into an agreement for Fury to purchase Newmont’s 49.978% interest in the Éléonore South project in Quebec for C$3 million ($2.2m)".
Now you can't tell me that deal was put together on monday morning.
They don't hang about - Havieron next ?
With GGP for the long term, for my Children, Grand Children and the Great Grand Children, put simply the Tribe
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
My thoughts in 3-4g/t AU Eqiv Purple ...
Francis wrote: ↑Mon Feb 26, 2024 5:30 pm I’m going to risk advancing a less positive prognosis.
GGP doesn’t have the upper hand in anything here. They bring nothing other than their 30% and their ROLR to the party and it’s not clear that is going to be enough to secure a winning outcome for existing shareholders. Er... nothing? They have a first class BOD, then $200m secured funding, They have Wyloo's backing and cash funding and they have a commanding position over the asset. And another discovery 50miles away
It’s very hard right now to draw supportable conclusions on valuation. Without the DFS we don’t know how much additional capital is required to take Havieron into operation. At the risk of stating the obvious paying for 100% is very different to paying for 30%. Neither do we yet know how the AISC has been affected by the recent inflationary period, or whether changes may be required to the project discount rate given changes in the risk-free rate. These are MAJOR unknowns. OK Francis - What we do know is that well run operations with tight capital discipline and no F**k ups are making big money. Capricorn metals just reported beating all expectations, despite 'inflation' while mining a 1g/t ore body at an AISC of $1300. it can be done when its is done right - these guys used to run Regis Resources. Sandfire just built and delivered the 5mt Mother copper mine for $370m on time and on budget constructed right through H2 2022 and 2023 with no inflationary cost' blow out' and no F**k ups
GGP’s existing bank finance package shouldn’t be considered to be “in the bag”, especially if GGP is to take on 100%. It is one thing to get permission to go fishing with your experienced and capable big brother, quite another to be allowed to go fishing by yourself. Bank appetite for credit risk is not what it was when the terms were agreed. Shaun Day has done well to keep the syndicate publicly “on board” this far, but that chain might yet be yanked hard. Ok Francis : Er 'Might' or 'has been yanked' - total speculation - but the industry knows that banks always lend on gold projects, that's just the deal in mining - they will always bankroll gold but, yes agree far less certainty on other commodities. And this is a big high quality 80% built project with significantly lower construction and permitting risk.
The potential sums involved are getting large for a thinly-capitalised minnow with no [other] revenue streams. The idea that the “Telfer Liability” might be offset against the value of the 70% thus producing an attainable net figure for GGP seems far-fetched. Regulators may well intervene to ensure that any open-ended environmental liabilities remain attached to a deeply capitalised corporation. Yup - This is where our big hitting BOD (mark Barnaba being a Reserve Bank of Australia official - complete with the backing of Wyloo and Tribecca - come in to pursuade the banks and lenders of our credibility - they can and will also persuade Oz pension funds to underwrite any equity component (if they can get in to L&G's bloody ESG fund then the Oz pension funds will extremley be keen to invest in large 'home grown' copper projects). Why would the net Telfer/Hav valuation not include a discount for the liabilities? That seems very obvious and widely reported maths and in the absence of others willing to take on Telfer... what options do they have? It's a buyers market today - here - tipped in favour of GGP by their existing 30% holding and LROR.
The suggestion that a deal might be done for future NSR or similar doesn’t meet NEM’s requirement to realise cash. They have promised $2bn to the market, and will need to deliver in order to avoid undermining their own credibility. Agree it will be a debt package with cash payments.
If GGP is to end up owning 100% of Havieron plus Telfer, all of the following will need to be funded one way or another:
- the existing debt due to NEM - The terms to this loan were favourable in that it doesn't need to paid off until Havieron is in production
- the purchase of the 70% from NEM Yes obviously - debt
- the purchase of Telfer (perhaps a small or even a negative figure) Its 100% a negative number.
- provision for the eventual Telfer shutdown / rehab costs ( at least 20 or 30 years off)
- the remaining capital expenditure to bring Hav into production [by the way, there is NO chance of this being achieved in 2024] (er how do you know?)
- the operational funding requirements prior to first revenues [mineworker salaries, energy costs etc] Revenues will flow from Telfer immediately
As the Money of Mine guy says in their podcast, “…it could be like a $1.5bn IPO or something…” That's Auzzie $ so $700m US but it it could be a number of other options... Like 300m Debt 400m IP plus they have no idea what the costs are. Becuase we don't yet know how much Newcrest over inflated the Mine Capex costs... we just know that the decline is almost there and then they are into gold.
If multiples of GGP’s existing market cap are required (and I think that SD and his carefully cultivated boardroom buddies would LOVE to do it!) then the interests of GGP’s existing shareholders will get ground to dust in the process. That’ll be fine for SD who will be the proud captain of a shiny new ship, rewarded by his delighted BoD with a reset on all his options etc. Don’t expect Wyloo/Twiggy to act as some sort of big-brother here, when the sums get super-sized they will look after their own interests. remember the options are at 11p and remember what did shaun do a Northen star 7000% was it...
A more likely outcome is that SD accepts the hard reality that Telfer and Havieron are going to be sold as a package (because Telfer will be too hard to shift by itself) and that the capital sums involved are out of reach for GGP. He’ll do a face-saving deal with Newmont, securing some value for the 30% and the ROLR. Newmont may pay up to remove the GGP wasp from their picnic, but whether the sum secured will be eye-watering for GGP in a positive way remains to be seen. Newmont will then turn uber-bullish on the prospects for Havieron - expect massively upgraded resource statements etc - as they’ll be looking to sell their 100% interest. If I were SD I might settle for a small sum up-front and a share of whatever NEM ultimately realise. Such a shape might suit NEM better too. Could you couch this more negatively, Francis? -' GGP the Wasp in Newmont's Picnic' Shaun has already informally confirmed to shareholders in person, at the Last Town Hall that he has the capital lined up... if you were there you would know this...
When has Shaun 00Day not done exactly what he said he would?
Have at it, as Ozzy Man might say.
Last edited by Hydrogen on Tue Feb 27, 2024 11:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
Can you imagine the work involved with every share your'e invested in, in which you feel negative about, and then share your negativity on those shares on forums everyday !
Just imagine how negative you could get.
The dogs I've invested in and lost money on, I restricted myself to the odd whine here and there, But you have to reflect on any negativity in a win win situation, and wonder why it is keeps on rolling.
Just imagine how negative you could get.
The dogs I've invested in and lost money on, I restricted myself to the odd whine here and there, But you have to reflect on any negativity in a win win situation, and wonder why it is keeps on rolling.
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
Further….
The moment he secures 100% of Hav. I’d give it say two weeks for an 6/7/8mt DFS to land.
What do you think that does to the mathematicals…and economics? Hmmm?
Yup. Exactly… but what I do know is Sandfire built a lot more than a decline and some ponds and a ventilation shaft or two for their $370m Motheo spend.
I’m telling you in all honesty: Unlike Newcrest - These people are not messing about.
The moment he secures 100% of Hav. I’d give it say two weeks for an 6/7/8mt DFS to land.
What do you think that does to the mathematicals…and economics? Hmmm?
Yup. Exactly… but what I do know is Sandfire built a lot more than a decline and some ponds and a ventilation shaft or two for their $370m Motheo spend.
I’m telling you in all honesty: Unlike Newcrest - These people are not messing about.
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscr ... our=append
"Buyers line up for Newmont’s Telfer mine stake
Newmont confirmed on Friday that it plans to sell Newcrest’s share of the Telfer mine in Western Australia. Regis Resources and Gold Road Resources are potential buyers."
I have not seen the full articles but the headline tells me enough, IMO, this is just to get it on the best game in town, without any real knowledge. (If anyone has the article or more useful information it would be appreciated)
I bring my thoughts to 'Why?', anybody would want Telfer with a slim possibility of securing the 70% of Havieron, knowing that the owner of the 30% has The last right of refusal.
If however you have the funds to buy the 'package of Telfer and Havieron', knowing that GGP cannot match your funds to take the 70% of Havieron after you have spent a few million $usa or $au, going through the process (on-costs), but to what end, to end up with a JV partner with 30%.
Then to start again to get the 30% that may cost the same , similar or greater amount to purchase in order to be full masters of the ore and the mine and an oversized mill, so that the costs of Telfer reinstatement become irrelevant. In this case I ask 'Who?', would bet themselves against GGP BoD, even if you have deep pockets as described, why would you waist money on due diligence if you could not guarantee to be the bride and not the bridesmade.
I have to conclude that the companies mentioned are journalist licence, (print is cheap, especially when you do not have to confirm what you print) in order to get an article to print as a lot of Australia are now becoming interested in Telfer/Havieron. Where not so long ago nobody had heard of Havieron in Oz, I thing that SD needed to be told prior to taking the job (no sure but I think he said so), when the PI's in London knew (well hoped and still do) that Havieron was a brilliant ore body and will develop into a life changing mine.
"Buyers line up for Newmont’s Telfer mine stake
Newmont confirmed on Friday that it plans to sell Newcrest’s share of the Telfer mine in Western Australia. Regis Resources and Gold Road Resources are potential buyers."
I have not seen the full articles but the headline tells me enough, IMO, this is just to get it on the best game in town, without any real knowledge. (If anyone has the article or more useful information it would be appreciated)
I bring my thoughts to 'Why?', anybody would want Telfer with a slim possibility of securing the 70% of Havieron, knowing that the owner of the 30% has The last right of refusal.
If however you have the funds to buy the 'package of Telfer and Havieron', knowing that GGP cannot match your funds to take the 70% of Havieron after you have spent a few million $usa or $au, going through the process (on-costs), but to what end, to end up with a JV partner with 30%.
Then to start again to get the 30% that may cost the same , similar or greater amount to purchase in order to be full masters of the ore and the mine and an oversized mill, so that the costs of Telfer reinstatement become irrelevant. In this case I ask 'Who?', would bet themselves against GGP BoD, even if you have deep pockets as described, why would you waist money on due diligence if you could not guarantee to be the bride and not the bridesmade.
I have to conclude that the companies mentioned are journalist licence, (print is cheap, especially when you do not have to confirm what you print) in order to get an article to print as a lot of Australia are now becoming interested in Telfer/Havieron. Where not so long ago nobody had heard of Havieron in Oz, I thing that SD needed to be told prior to taking the job (no sure but I think he said so), when the PI's in London knew (well hoped and still do) that Havieron was a brilliant ore body and will develop into a life changing mine.
With GGP for the long term, for my Children, Grand Children and the Great Grand Children, put simply the Tribe
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Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
That's the article of 25th February I believe, here's the link to an archived copy of the whole piece (archive.today)
https://archive.ph/fgnHw
https://archive.ph/fgnHw
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
If Shaun can secure Telfer this company is going to be instantly massive:
Essentially a whopping circa 300% (or more) increase in asset - instantly catapulted into the the ASX 200 (presume there's a ASX listing) and into every super pension fund and tracker in Australia ... and quite probably into the ftse 250 also.
The Aim stock 'dilution Naysers' are just F-clueless.
We will instantly - overnight - become a 300-350koz producer. That is transformational in its own right. And that's Without Havieron.
Matty at money of mine used to work at Telfer and he's been saying consistently There's garrrld all over the f'kin place at Telfer" ... that Newcrest never went for: They are smaller deposits but it is possible to make them pay handsomely if the fixed costs are addressed.
IMO We'll have two trains runnng - 1 running Havieron ore, at 3-6mt by H1 26, and the other running Telfer ore for the underground at 1.5g 10mt initially until they find more gold in the surrounding open pit zones.
Then shaun sets about the Newcrest legacy Fixed costs and the soft issues ... Just as he did at Jundee. These old school 'long in the tooth companies' are just ripe for total transformation...
The Question is - do you beileve Shuan can do it - ? Well looks like Andrew Forrest does - rumour has it, he sees around corners.
That's immediately a place in GDX
That's an increase in our weighting in GDXJ by a significnat amount.
Yes there will be dilution but it's accretive dilution not friggin AIM stock just anther year 'dilution' Jam tomoz
With Wyloo on the book at 8.2p you can guarantee it's not going to be serious dilution either - much of this will be funded.
They know they can make this pay: But KEY - no other buyer will take 70% of Havieron it without paying huge overs like Regis Tropicana and even then they only having 70% of the asset - so what does that do to the GGP valuation ...?
Either way you cut it if you trust Shaun, then price discovery is dead ahead.
Essentially a whopping circa 300% (or more) increase in asset - instantly catapulted into the the ASX 200 (presume there's a ASX listing) and into every super pension fund and tracker in Australia ... and quite probably into the ftse 250 also.
The Aim stock 'dilution Naysers' are just F-clueless.
We will instantly - overnight - become a 300-350koz producer. That is transformational in its own right. And that's Without Havieron.
Matty at money of mine used to work at Telfer and he's been saying consistently There's garrrld all over the f'kin place at Telfer" ... that Newcrest never went for: They are smaller deposits but it is possible to make them pay handsomely if the fixed costs are addressed.
IMO We'll have two trains runnng - 1 running Havieron ore, at 3-6mt by H1 26, and the other running Telfer ore for the underground at 1.5g 10mt initially until they find more gold in the surrounding open pit zones.
Then shaun sets about the Newcrest legacy Fixed costs and the soft issues ... Just as he did at Jundee. These old school 'long in the tooth companies' are just ripe for total transformation...
The Question is - do you beileve Shuan can do it - ? Well looks like Andrew Forrest does - rumour has it, he sees around corners.
That's immediately a place in GDX
That's an increase in our weighting in GDXJ by a significnat amount.
Yes there will be dilution but it's accretive dilution not friggin AIM stock just anther year 'dilution' Jam tomoz
With Wyloo on the book at 8.2p you can guarantee it's not going to be serious dilution either - much of this will be funded.
They know they can make this pay: But KEY - no other buyer will take 70% of Havieron it without paying huge overs like Regis Tropicana and even then they only having 70% of the asset - so what does that do to the GGP valuation ...?
Either way you cut it if you trust Shaun, then price discovery is dead ahead.
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
Chris_On_GGPChat: Thanks for the sight of that, my ramblings continue.
I was correct that there was no real content over and above the headline, but it did fill some column inches.
I agree with Hydrogen that this company will grow wings if, and there is 'an if', Shaun can pull it off, he pulled off, Ilike Hydrogens picture of the way forward..
The doubters need to remember that the old management once Havieron came into play were out of their depth, when the share price was at the All Time High as a company we had commitments with NO means of delivering. Newcrest played with us giving more debt with the Juri JV, and obtaining asset, expecting that they would have 100% in due course. The old management recognised GGP was in a dead End Street, they chose well, enter Shaun Day, and his experience allowed GGP to put together the financing to get us out of that situation, Stage One of the SD plan
We come back then to the same statement, as Shaun explained to a Town Hall meeting I attended, how he courted members of the board, patiently over about a year, from memory, and at the same TH he made statement about where he saw GGP going. Collecting the board together with the 2 core investors that allowed us to hold the 'now magic' 5%, being Stage Two.
We have had to wait a while for Stage Three and moves made in Stage Two will prove there worth, it appears to have arrived.
Stage Four will be the ASX listing, the order of these could change depending on circumstances, but this looks like the order.
Stage Five of the SD plan is two fold , I think, to exploit our other tenements, and acquire producing assets should the opportunity present itself. IMO after this stage GGP will again become a Take over target not due to weakness but strenght, and I am sure we will have left 7 many, many multiples behind.
(PS I would attend all Town Hall meetings but I live in Spain during the winter and March seems to be a favoured time, I cannot get, but I encourage all who can to attend to attend)
I was correct that there was no real content over and above the headline, but it did fill some column inches.
I agree with Hydrogen that this company will grow wings if, and there is 'an if', Shaun can pull it off, he pulled off, Ilike Hydrogens picture of the way forward..
The doubters need to remember that the old management once Havieron came into play were out of their depth, when the share price was at the All Time High as a company we had commitments with NO means of delivering. Newcrest played with us giving more debt with the Juri JV, and obtaining asset, expecting that they would have 100% in due course. The old management recognised GGP was in a dead End Street, they chose well, enter Shaun Day, and his experience allowed GGP to put together the financing to get us out of that situation, Stage One of the SD plan
We come back then to the same statement, as Shaun explained to a Town Hall meeting I attended, how he courted members of the board, patiently over about a year, from memory, and at the same TH he made statement about where he saw GGP going. Collecting the board together with the 2 core investors that allowed us to hold the 'now magic' 5%, being Stage Two.
We have had to wait a while for Stage Three and moves made in Stage Two will prove there worth, it appears to have arrived.
Stage Four will be the ASX listing, the order of these could change depending on circumstances, but this looks like the order.
Stage Five of the SD plan is two fold , I think, to exploit our other tenements, and acquire producing assets should the opportunity present itself. IMO after this stage GGP will again become a Take over target not due to weakness but strenght, and I am sure we will have left 7 many, many multiples behind.
(PS I would attend all Town Hall meetings but I live in Spain during the winter and March seems to be a favoured time, I cannot get, but I encourage all who can to attend to attend)
With GGP for the long term, for my Children, Grand Children and the Great Grand Children, put simply the Tribe
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
What I also think is fascinating is that newmont Purchased 2.2moz of NCM gold production (plus a lot of undeveloped assets) for $17bn
And it appears they are willing to sell 1.6moz of gold production 'for at least $2bn'
The green underlines (plus Telfer purple) are the assets up for sale - this adds up to 1.6moz production
Obviously Red Chris , Wafi and Brucejack are not in full production yet...
No wonder the Newmont Share price has dived 61% from the cycle high. These assets are still years away from production.
Further, Telfer is throwing off $140m in free cash based on 361 koz of production at $1600/oz AISC and a $400/margin - (this is according to NCMs Q2 2023 numbers).
Analyse the Telfer AISC costs closer and what you see is quite fascinating: The big blow out cost is the mining cost, specifically from the Telfer open pit... $880/oz.
So Shaun MUST get the open pit mining costs right down at Telfer - 880/oz is a big cost vs Lahir and Brucejack around $430/oz
Reclamation costs are high at Tefer v Cadia : the mining and by products at Cadia's block cave certainly smash Telfer out of the park... BUT The rest is pretty comparable - of note Red Chris appears a disaster.
Rather Interestingly the Mill at Telfer is not a blow out cost at all. And neither are the transport costs - identical to Cadia: Lahir is a lot More $$ and Red chris crazy $$
But the rest of the AISC components are actually very comparable... So it seems, as we know... Just the Telfer grade is the issue here - where Lahir 2x the grade so equates to 1/2 the mining cost of Telfer per Oz
Geneuis! - SO how will Shuan double or Triple the Grade....? YUP Er Slam dunk. If you triple the grade from 0.75 to 2.25 ( FFs even or 3g/t is possible the best material at the top of Hav) then GGP will be throwing off $ 140m x 3 = $420m in free cash flow, after sustaining costs.
We can pay off 100% of the debt in about 2 years of full blown production at 3mt ish... and the mine Capex too. All paid for in 2-3 years. And if gold tracks higher sooner.
THat's way more than GGPs current Mcap in fact near enough double. This is going to be a decades long cash cow.
And just think of all that green copper ... Nb - Copper price has just turned bullish. And has China.
And it appears they are willing to sell 1.6moz of gold production 'for at least $2bn'
The green underlines (plus Telfer purple) are the assets up for sale - this adds up to 1.6moz production
Obviously Red Chris , Wafi and Brucejack are not in full production yet...
No wonder the Newmont Share price has dived 61% from the cycle high. These assets are still years away from production.
Further, Telfer is throwing off $140m in free cash based on 361 koz of production at $1600/oz AISC and a $400/margin - (this is according to NCMs Q2 2023 numbers).
Analyse the Telfer AISC costs closer and what you see is quite fascinating: The big blow out cost is the mining cost, specifically from the Telfer open pit... $880/oz.
So Shaun MUST get the open pit mining costs right down at Telfer - 880/oz is a big cost vs Lahir and Brucejack around $430/oz
Reclamation costs are high at Tefer v Cadia : the mining and by products at Cadia's block cave certainly smash Telfer out of the park... BUT The rest is pretty comparable - of note Red Chris appears a disaster.
Rather Interestingly the Mill at Telfer is not a blow out cost at all. And neither are the transport costs - identical to Cadia: Lahir is a lot More $$ and Red chris crazy $$
But the rest of the AISC components are actually very comparable... So it seems, as we know... Just the Telfer grade is the issue here - where Lahir 2x the grade so equates to 1/2 the mining cost of Telfer per Oz
Geneuis! - SO how will Shuan double or Triple the Grade....? YUP Er Slam dunk. If you triple the grade from 0.75 to 2.25 ( FFs even or 3g/t is possible the best material at the top of Hav) then GGP will be throwing off $ 140m x 3 = $420m in free cash flow, after sustaining costs.
We can pay off 100% of the debt in about 2 years of full blown production at 3mt ish... and the mine Capex too. All paid for in 2-3 years. And if gold tracks higher sooner.
THat's way more than GGPs current Mcap in fact near enough double. This is going to be a decades long cash cow.
And just think of all that green copper ... Nb - Copper price has just turned bullish. And has China.
In the end, Truth prevails...
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
There seems to be a good deal of pessimism in the media regarding Telfer, I have read in a number of articles the plant is ‘almost 50 years old’.
The mine may be of that vintage but the plant is not yet 20 years old, and by and large is in good condition.
If a new owner was to come along and buy Newmont’s share of Haveiron as well as Telfer, it would not be as simple as running train one for Telfer and train 2 for Haveiron. There is a large portion of the plant that is common to both trains, the CIL circuit, the CCDs, the copper larox press and thickener, the pyrite scavengers and last but not least, the gold room itself, which is physically perfectly located to take advantage of the gravity circuit in the mill. The cost of duplicating all this would be astronomical and I can’t see how it would be economically viable for the whole shebang not to be owned by one entity.
Haveiron was essentially closed off in September with Newcrest’s official line being that they had reached a depth where expensive dewatering was going to be required and they chose not to continue given the impending Newmont takeover and would leave it for NM to determine a continued course of action, given the state of play at the time this seems reasonable.
By all accounts there are some exceptional prospects within range of the underground Telfer mine, and given the impending downtime whilst repairs are undertaken to the tailings dam, it would suggest there will be plenty of time to dig through the waste ore to offer access to these areas, basically allowing the plant to hit the ground running when it restarts both trains (expected to be approx August).
Telfer produced I think 323kOz last year, 393 the year before and I think about 410 the year before that? Given the prohibition notice referencing the tailings dam I’d be surprised if they hit 240kOz this year, which is (I believe) their optimistic target, but next financial year I have a great deal of confidence in telfer and I’d be amazed if it wasn’t back in the high 300s.
I read Haveiron is estimated to be potentially 160kOz a year, so between the two I don’t see why it wouldn’t regularly be a (conservative) 500kOz a year proposition, and the gold price shows no sign of scaling back any time soon.
It would be nice to see a new owner be willing to invest some serious coin in to upgrading such items as the SAG cycloconverters, the stacker substations and the cyclone feed pump VSDs but that’s just a Christmas wish list from an observer … the existing gear is doing a great job, and is well served by a pretty dedicated crew.
If a good price can be negotiated I think Telfer/Haveiron would be a great proposition, it owns it own 120Mw power station, and the gas pipeline all the way from Karratha, the bitumen runway at the airport is in excellent condition, so an optimist would suggest it kicks a lot of goals, much cheaper than spending a couple of billion to set up a new plant from scratch at Haveiron, economically out of the question.
The mine may be of that vintage but the plant is not yet 20 years old, and by and large is in good condition.
If a new owner was to come along and buy Newmont’s share of Haveiron as well as Telfer, it would not be as simple as running train one for Telfer and train 2 for Haveiron. There is a large portion of the plant that is common to both trains, the CIL circuit, the CCDs, the copper larox press and thickener, the pyrite scavengers and last but not least, the gold room itself, which is physically perfectly located to take advantage of the gravity circuit in the mill. The cost of duplicating all this would be astronomical and I can’t see how it would be economically viable for the whole shebang not to be owned by one entity.
Haveiron was essentially closed off in September with Newcrest’s official line being that they had reached a depth where expensive dewatering was going to be required and they chose not to continue given the impending Newmont takeover and would leave it for NM to determine a continued course of action, given the state of play at the time this seems reasonable.
By all accounts there are some exceptional prospects within range of the underground Telfer mine, and given the impending downtime whilst repairs are undertaken to the tailings dam, it would suggest there will be plenty of time to dig through the waste ore to offer access to these areas, basically allowing the plant to hit the ground running when it restarts both trains (expected to be approx August).
Telfer produced I think 323kOz last year, 393 the year before and I think about 410 the year before that? Given the prohibition notice referencing the tailings dam I’d be surprised if they hit 240kOz this year, which is (I believe) their optimistic target, but next financial year I have a great deal of confidence in telfer and I’d be amazed if it wasn’t back in the high 300s.
I read Haveiron is estimated to be potentially 160kOz a year, so between the two I don’t see why it wouldn’t regularly be a (conservative) 500kOz a year proposition, and the gold price shows no sign of scaling back any time soon.
It would be nice to see a new owner be willing to invest some serious coin in to upgrading such items as the SAG cycloconverters, the stacker substations and the cyclone feed pump VSDs but that’s just a Christmas wish list from an observer … the existing gear is doing a great job, and is well served by a pretty dedicated crew.
If a good price can be negotiated I think Telfer/Haveiron would be a great proposition, it owns it own 120Mw power station, and the gas pipeline all the way from Karratha, the bitumen runway at the airport is in excellent condition, so an optimist would suggest it kicks a lot of goals, much cheaper than spending a couple of billion to set up a new plant from scratch at Haveiron, economically out of the question.
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
NEM only deals in Tier 1's. (500kozAu/yr)
Tel/Hav has therefore been ruled out by them.
If you think 2024 will bring in 240koz, why should that rise in future years?
Unless new technology can optimise production @ Tel - she will continue to decline.
One hopes that other operators will use Tel for processing.
Hav on the other hand will increase production as the bulk underground mine comes on line, (in tandem with the SLOS) several years from now.
NEM have run the numbers and decided to sell.
Z
Tel/Hav has therefore been ruled out by them.
If you think 2024 will bring in 240koz, why should that rise in future years?
Unless new technology can optimise production @ Tel - she will continue to decline.
One hopes that other operators will use Tel for processing.
Hav on the other hand will increase production as the bulk underground mine comes on line, (in tandem with the SLOS) several years from now.
NEM have run the numbers and decided to sell.
Z
Re: Newmont and Telfer (with Havieron)
You never know quite what goes on behind closed doors... Mulling things over (and In hindsight and perhaps overthinking!?), I'm beginning to wonder if last year's sudden postponment of the ASX listing was related to some 'grapevine ' indications that there was to be a buyout of Newcrest by Newmont, and so saving the not-insubstantial ASX-listing monies towards the opportunities that are arising now.
GGP holder for the longer term.