Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Discussions surrounding Gold, Silver and Copper
Hydrogen
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Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

Ok big night...

News of 3 FED rate cuts next year instantly puts $50 on the price of gold and absolutely tanked the USD and 10y yield cratering the US 10 year rate right through its key tail support at 4% to 3.93 .

Screenshot 2023-12-14 at 09.29.18.png

THIS IS A BIG F DEAL... Instantly rocketing gold to $2040 an oz within seconds of the fed notes announcing the Great Pivot.

Gold stocks and the SP500 exploded higher... in a massive rally across the seniors and some juniors. (A ralley that completely left the 7 Molten Magma Tech stocks behind..

Fresnillo, Endeavour Newmont all up 6-8%

Some absolutely Huge moves in Similar Developers and explorers too: >>>>>> and I mean HUGE.

Skeena Resources Up 18%
Seabridge up 8%
SABLE resources up 10%
I80 Gold up 10%
RedPine up 10%
Q-GOLD UP 50%
FIRST MAJESTIC UP 12%
New found gold up 7%
Global copper miners ETF up 4%
GDXJ up 8%

GDX was up as much as GDXJ which is populated by many mid to large caps (at the top end). So the seniors move first and the juniors they follow.

Fact is Gold has shown phenomenal strength against higher for longer rates, hitting all time highs just a few weeks ago.

Since then a crew of ADVFN shorters took a massive gamble dumping circa 25m borrowed GGP shares on the basis no MRE was announced on AGM day and gold had already pulled back significantly to $1970/oz, and was likely, according to 'chartists' to pull back further.

However all along Gold was sniffing the Fed Pivot....

Screenshot 2023-12-14 at 09.18.18.png

The tide has now turned and the FED 'pivot' suggests categorically they know the economy is in deterioration mode, but worse, inflation is still elevated.

CORE inflation the key measure that the fed uses CPI ex Shelter - was actually up. (although not widely reported) ... https://ibb.co/zSDdwkG This is the Fed's own definition of "preferred measure of inflation"


Screenshot 2023-12-14 at 09.20.07.png


Does that chart look like its heading down to 2% or IN FACT is it possibly heading UP :oops: .. ?

This means a GOLDILOCKS period for gold and its exactly what god has been sniffing . Gold should be much higher already but the higher rates and higher USD capped it in dollar price.. ( Obviously gold its as all time highs in other currencies and as been for weeks..

BUT - That situation has now changed. Fund managers globally will be increasing their exposure to gold, and to quality gold equities, due to the tail wind of falling rates, falling US dollar and slowing US economy.

The truth is, that the Fed didn't decide to drop rates becuase the inflation fight is over. Oh nope... It's becuase of a combination of factors - yes inflation is down., but at 5% the US know it cannot afford is nation's Debt burden ... when the interest payments match the defence budget something needs to change. Janet Yellen made that absolutely clear.

They are desperate to paint the picture that everything is rosy and a soft landing is dead ahead. This is becuase the money men having been screaming for 'cowbell' as certain sectors implode - commercial property/regional banks - are on the brink of total collapse... and they want their bubble back... This strategy - to keep people's peckers up, and stocks buoyant, is simply b/c Biden has an election to fight next year and they will no doubt lose, if the economy has already tanked into the global recession that was coming at 5% rates.

Thats the risk - Bidenomics was a flaccid failure... So the policy object is now to stave off recession as long as possible, at the expense of anything now - including fighting inflation - Arthur Burns anyone? They lied about health insurance costs reducing them 70% in the November print to take CPI 1 bp lowers, which in aggregate to CPI from increasing to decreasing- as if by magic. Make no mistake - everything gets fudged.

AND meanwhile, beautifully they have accidentally created the perfect storm for gold - the “Goldilocks” moment for gold.

That will take a little time to percolate through... to the wider corners of the markets and fund management industry. Meanwhile, small caps and value has been left for dead - just take a look at the Russel 2000. And hedge fund managers globally are getting sacked daily - 10 a penny. Becuase what happens next when money starts to drain out of those 7 Magma super mother of all Bubble cap Stocks...? When companies start having to guide down and reports the truth - take Oracle two days ago... smashed becuase thy had to report reality.

Negative real interest rates, high inflation ( 100% higher than 2%) and a falling US Dollar - especially if other countries keep their rates higher, relative to the US. Plus the constant nagging tail risks of a major slowing economy, and oh boy, is the US economy slowing. The GFC was about Wall street - this about Main street. There's huge crisis on Main street.

India on the other hand is performing brilliantly so it's quite specific to the US and EU. And it's all to do with Stagflation, high debt and an economy addicted to free and easy money creation. And Wall Street finally having to report reality, by guiding down.

Watch for the 10 year breaking down over the coming days... and once again reinverting the Yield Curve in the process...

In the End truth Prevails.
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droverman
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by droverman »

On top of all that the USA markets are now in a closed position for companies buying back their own shares until 19 January 2024. The markets are going down as companies cant buy back shares to support the SP so its only going to go one way only and that's down and gold and silver are the only safe bet at the moment. Shame GGP wasn't closer to production, but a good MRE will improve things as the gold in ground is only going one way and that is up in value until we extract some of it. DM
Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

Quite an interesting Kinesis podcast this week with Andrew Maguire. He's not to everyone's taste and often TBF talks in riddles but...

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/w ... 0638667442

Macquire reckons the story circulating via his physical gold liquidity provider contacts; is that the spike to $2145 gold at 11.30pm Sunday 3rd December was a deliberate, essentially hostile action, by what potentially appears to be another Sovereign who sold an absolutely massive amount of US Treasuries and bought Gold during extremely thin markets, after London and had closed in an attempt to deliberately spike the price higher.

This apparently cause absolute carnage over at the Comex on friday night when the trade started ... they have emergency measures that kick in to try defuse price spikes ( though apparently not for falls in the gold price :roll: )

This huge reaction is what caused the massive 'outside reversal' candle (a highly bearish candel technically) and was deliberately fabricated by design because the Government and the FED knew the incoming Inflation data ( and dot plot ) etc would be bullish for gold so they had no choice but to smashed gold as hard as they could and shake out and gaining momentum or overly positive sentiment.

But what Maguire thinks or concludes is that the Comex are now at real risk of losing control of gold becuase the evidence suggests this opposing Sovereign is part of an international 'effort' to move gold higher now (most probably the Chinese - he speculates - which potentially also fits the gold backed Yuan narrative which is still developing it seems).

I heard Chris Vermulan say early last week that massive red gold candle on Monday4th December was like the worst gold candle he'd ever seen - and was consequently extremely bearish on gold now.... but by the end of the week gold had regained $2040 closing at $2019.

A Fascinating Christmas card from Maquire's contacts... talking of Xmas cards anyone remember when the price of of a 1st class stamp was 30p area? It certainly wasn't that long ago - 2010 about 38p - my kids were born. Today a 1st class stamp is £1.25.

Gold essentially needs to do the same, frankly. It's far too low in price, Because the same cost pressures on a stamp (fuel and labour) are the same for gold.

That makes $3000-3500 gold look fairly tame ... Inflation it seems will at some point soon move gold much higher.
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

I've been pondering this move in gold... and I have to say - it's melting my head somewhat.

Look at the scale of last Sunday night to Monday's move (proportionally) in just a few hours (the pink bar highlights it in context ) It's just a crazy move... considering there was no immediate 'news' driving it. So that begs the question... WTF is driving this?

Who or what can move the gold price 10% up and down, in just a matter of hours?

Screenshot 2023-12-18 at 09.00.11.png

Is Maguire right - is China going hard - trying to move it? And did they - the Comex - nearly lose control...?


Here's last Sunday nights pink move in 'historic' context... It's Almost as big as the covid crash. Almost as big as the Covid blow off top in August 2020 and I reckon quite a bit bigger than the Ukraine war spike. And remember this chart is on a weekly scale - each candle bar is one week - but Sunday night to Monday's move was just hours.

However... There was no news, whatsoever... to accompany the move. So something really big is going off, and if you are in the sidelines, I genuinely think this could well be the last chance. It's just odd.


Screenshot 2023-12-18 at 09.04.59.png
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

Thought I'd revisit one of my 'RAMP TASTIC' (cough - ie totally accurate) posts from December ... :lol:

(Just to see if it turned out correct...?)

Gold about to smash through $2200 ATH again today 💥 And I so bet you are wondering why...?

Here are the facts:

Gold is up 37% since the recent Oct 22 low of $1600

Gold is 53% up from the Covid low of $1453

Gold is 110% up from the 2016 Cycle low of $1046

Only another 500-700% to go... 🔥

Full on BULL Market erupting bang in front of us ... and the market is still chasing NVIDA to nose bleed levels, when there is so much risk out there.

Did you know that mid market US retail store Target has just announced it's to become a dollar store? Yup WTF? :shock:

You gotta love it because when that flow from Nvidia turns and it will.... its going to be really something this time.

No idea why Tigger sold out at the lows to go into Glencore - Typical mentality of PI retail investor but obviously the shorts want PIs out.

Today I'm suggesting a $2800 near term gold top. Of note - move from 1850 ( a recent average price) to 2800 is a 51% rise 🕺💃

GOLD_2024-03-26_10-59-18.png

So - why is gold rising then? Well why do you think: 1. China. Both the recent Sunday gold price spikes to 2200 zone came from Chinese market moves at the same time on sunday night, right...? they are a key driver in this.

And 2 Interest rates Rates: Now look, for the first time in years (well ages) The entire US market has moved to a net long gold... This week's CTFC data shows the market has almost the greatest net long silver position ever 52k contracts and gold is approaching the largest number of net long contracts too 157k (vs 175k max)

Screenshot 2024-03-26 at 11.22.43.png


This is the significant, underlying, sea change that is taking place in global markets... which, combined with the large net short US Treasury position which has just started to be unwound. That ALL = Treasury Yields down, and, conversely, Gold up... Or in other words - the market's foot has been removed from Gold's neck.

Just as predicted... Now it looks like inflation will still remain sticky, but the FED has signalled ( ie been forced into) a U Turn on rate policy = cowbell / QE / Easing Dovish Policy = Good for Gold (due to the risk of negative real interest rates).

This is becuase IMI they suspect a US recession / even a depression is coming... and what do you buy in that situation? Gold.
Last edited by Hydrogen on Wed Mar 27, 2024 9:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Ivan66
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Ivan66 »

I watched Gareth Soloway yesterday, and he mentioned Zuckerberg was again selling AAPL. And saw a chart comparing ETF values, with BTC absolutely stonking the opposition for AUM. Massively ahead. My own view, I think crypto will see the creation of legislation banning it being held. It flies in the face of the global banks desires to digitise us, to suit their agenda.

For those that are prepared to read deeper into the bigger picture, away from the dross the national media talks about everyday, the significance of China/India/Turkey etc stockpiling Gold, while the US based suits inflate the S&P to even greater highs. Insiders of the quality of Zuckerberg taking money out of the game adds up to one thing. They all think its going to happen too. This is the "Big Short" movie in real life, we are all sat watching it.

Gold price has been going up, but staying up, this month since the high of 8th March $2178 it has gone sideways along that line. Nearly the end of the month and its still at $2178.

So in answer to your re-visiting old posts, I wouldn't call you a ramper at all. You share your thoughts with others, which is a good thing. I have been calling a market crash the last 12 months and more, wife has zoned me out on the subject. I believe it is about to come crashing down, and I'm guessing you think the same. That makes you a believer not a ramper.

Gold is real, and if Greatland ever start mining it, we should do quite from it. But that's another story.........
Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

HI Ivan -

I appreciate your comments. What's really becoming evident now, is that we have all been aware of the impending gold bug 'doomsday' scenario that the gold 'nuts jobs' have been warning about for years: like Schiff, Kyosaki , Jim Rickard's Jeremy Grantham - oh he's not a gold nut but yes and the rest:

Check this paragraph from this March 2010 article:

"Conservative Pundits Profit on People's Fear" is the title of one section of Weiner's report. After listing a number of conservative commentators who are sponsored by Goldline, the report concludes: "The message that these commentators push is that government is out of control and unsafe, inflation will continue to devalue the dollar and that as an investor you should protect yourself by stock piling gold coins."

If you had invested a portion of your net worth in gold in March 2010 you have seen at 156% return on your capital today. Despite all the gold ups and downs and alleged JPM price suppression etc. Had you invested in the SP500 you would have seen a 340% return.

Now please everyone take a look at these slides: someone in the know sent me from a hedge fund. This is data driven research from a high quality and credible research organisation;

Change is taking place. The arguments 'dwelled' on and feared by the 'gold nuts' are now starting to gain traction across markets. Market participants are really seriously getting worried about US debt to GDP ratios.


Screenshot 2024-03-27 at 10.45.59.png


So ok - whilst US Debt to GDP ratio was worse after the horrors of WW2 (around 200-300%), that was actually a World War, where nuclear bombs were actually dropped and millions died and cities were destroyed. We have seen relative halcyon period since the 1960s (notwithstanding ongoing proxy wars in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan and now Ukraine).

BUT just Imagine if we had another pandemic...? or a War with china, or another global financial crisis or a climate disaster - How does that get funded...? Given this undeniable US government debt spiral?

So, what are the implications? - read closely the annotations on these slides... they are very clear.

Rising levels of Debt correlate with slower economic growth. The SP500 is at all time highs today - but what created that move was gigantic 0DTE '7 hours to expiry call option' buying on an industrial scale. That's not investment. It's epic market manipulation, designed to chase price, and create false price based market sentiment and upward momentum. "US People feel richer so it can't be that bad" wealth effect garbage.

Screenshot 2024-03-27 at 11.02.58.png

We are going through a transition, at a fulcrum pint right here now today: where between 2024 to 2054 the actual real world acceleration in US debt levels is TOTALLY unsustainable: its project to almost double from 97% to 172% by 2054 (with no adverse factors proved in - er allegedly Climate Change may be a bit of an issue lets hope its not ). This means there is no way the US government can afford interest rates at 3% 4% 5% long term and it means that we will see significant and I mean really significnat monetary inflation - becuase the only way out of debt (like WW2) is 'hidden' inflation.

What you are looking at is a 250 year Sovereign credit bubble event. And it's about to get a lot worse. After 50 years of sensible government spending the zero interest rate drunken sailor ZIRP Party of the last 15 years (2008 to 2022), ushered in the craze of MMT mentalist spending. ie "Spend what you want without consequence". Phase 3 the next phase - and its the 30 year MMT ZIPR hangover. Get the Alkesalzer out.

Where NET interest payments jump from mostly around 1.5 % of GDP ( occasionally jumping to 2.5% of GDP) since 1962 to a FUCKING whopping 6.5% of GDP by 2054. How does that get funded?

Screenshot 2024-03-27 at 11.32.51.png


The US Government has no none to blame for this but itself - all parties Dems and Republican are equally guilty. US fiscal Deficits will jumped from a tame 1-2% over 5past 50 years up to almost 10% where ballooning spending - both Mandatory and debt Interest payments are set to reek total havoc on the US economy.

I have No idea what that really means for he rest of the world. Other than significant US driven inflation possibly even hyper inflation... I suspect most western governments are in a similar boat with the exception of very low debt OECD countries with a lot of commodities or a significant industrial base like Australia, South Korea, Denmark, Germany, Isreal Poland etc
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

Screenshot 2024-03-27 at 11.14.12.png



This final slide shows the implications - 5% -7% - 9% GFC type deficits every single year. that simply means no social care, or, no defence budget or whatever for years.

Screenshot 2024-03-27 at 11.14.38.png

As you say Ivan 'Gold' is real. But so is Debt.

The only way out is epic money printing event - QE5 - and with that comes severe inflation. Massive inflation... some estimates are suggesting that $20 trillion dollar increase in the M2 money supply will be required - that's going to absolutely destroy cash and savings and long term US government bonds.

Hard assets and commodities will survive and interest rates could easily jump to 20%
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

Today they have published a 5 minute clip of the discussion;

HedgeEye analysts talks through the data.

https://youtu.be/d8dJVLKd6JA?si=GTCLan-XjYBLl_Ol
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

In other news a cracking and quite unusual day in the US market :

Screenshot 2024-04-01 at 19.40.19.png



Very interesting day... Schiff and Mcullough (not really a gold bug) both said to watch out for this - the days when bond yields, the DXY and gold are rising up by a decent amount in symphony ie 50 to 100bp - ( and notably stocks are ALL down )

Who would buy the dollar? Those that are putting money into T bills presumably? -

Well the Dollar is the 'go to' safe haven... IMO what you can see here is an underlying secret bit of panic setting in i think. THis has been building for a while, - well bullish dollar for about 2 months whilst gold rises and there was a fairly huge move in the US dollar today.

This all signals a major breakdown in longstanding standard inverse $ correlations: ie Gold is getting relatively 'more' desirable and valuable compared to how it was previously viewed by the,market...

So if you want juniors and miners cheap, you might want to be quick.

Much more detail on the carnage thats unfolding under the surface here :

https://kingworldnews.com/investors-get ... d-of-lies/
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Hydrogen
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Post by Hydrogen »

Well there you have it - confirmed massive break out in gold silver and now the miners follow.

Miners won’t stop for a breather now for a while - a lot of money rotating out of tech..

Huge bent market short 6.5m buy trade filled at 5.97p earlier low of the day today. If that wasn’t a short closing I’ll chew my own foot off.

Place a big enough order below market price and watch the AIM twats fill it. Pisses me off but what can you do.
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

Here you go - direct evidence - hard data of all inverse dollar correlations that have been working against gold for the past 2 years

Screenshot 2024-04-02 at 22.54.22.png

Totally breaking down ... and flipping (or inverting into positive correlations.

Gold has flipped from a -0.94 52 week low to a positive 0.63 correlation to the USD (previous 52 week +ve high was 0.46)

So again what that now means is that market thinks gold is seriously more attractive on a relative basis than the USD

Positive correlation is green positive Number
Inverse correlation is a a negative red number
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

A significant break out to the upside in the 10 Year Yield again today 🧐 - punching through that long term horizontal resistance line going back 18 months or so - this is what Peter Schiff always said should be happening : ie gold and yields rising together. So what gives ? - did someone re-programme the market gold algorithms? Because it sure looks that way...

How Interesting there's max FUD in all channels again. with Pepsie and Shirly and Halland and Toast going at it all weekend. They know the window is now certainly closing

Screenshot 2024-04-02 at 23.30.12.png
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Hydrogen
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Post by Hydrogen »

Even Bloomberg this am piling into the conspiracy gold narrative now (that China and Global south must be dumping Treasuries).

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b ... 0651198641

The powers that be; will be upset.
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Hydrogen
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Post by Hydrogen »

Listened to Jeff Snyder on the gold rally. There’s a the central bank buying which we all know about.

He thinks it’s two key drivers are

1) Chinese high net worth and retail buying - basically Chinese property was the go to “store of value” but given the big losses in the property sector Chinese investors are now buying gold instead.

2) US fear trade hedge. Snyder is convinced there’s some nastiness lurking in the US banking system and investors are hedging against this risk. Commercial property values still falling - with massive unrealised losses on balance sheets - (as are rents still falling in commercial property).
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Ivan66
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Ivan66 »

I read this earlier, much commentary on the huge disconnect between Gold & Silver stocks and the commodity side of things. Battered flat, starved on liquidity and love. Who would be mad enough to throw good money at Gold stocks.

Me. (But I am a ramper and believer :lol: )


https://aheadoftheherd.com/underperform ... ard-mills/
Hydrogen
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Post by Hydrogen »

Kranzler Research (latest Update )

The Miners Have A Big Move Coming

"Gold has worked down from Alexander's time... When something holds good for two thousand years I do not believe it can be so because of prejudice or mistaken theory."

Several people have asked me my thoughts on what is causing the latest move higher in the prices of gold and silver. I think there's several facets to this and it's certainly not as simplistic as "rate cut expectations."
While all major countries have contributed to the flood of money and debt that has been supplied globally, I think there's a dollar crisis unfolding that is driven by the fact that Treasury debt issuance and debt service costs are going parabolic. This in turn is leading to a growing loss of confidence in the dollar by many of the U.S.' trading partners. In addition, and likely in response to an expected dollar crisis, the eastern hemisphere Central Banks are accum- ulating an unprecedented quantity of physical gold on an ongoing basis.
I can't prove it but according to those who are close to the situation, the supply of gold available to deliver to the eastern buyers in London is tight. Thus, there may be a short squeeze component to the rally in gold in the physical market. In other words there's a good chance the physical market is leading the paper market by the nose right now.

In addition, the move in gold reflects a combination of factors including the fact that price inflation appears to be picking back up, the U.S. banks have big problems with bad debt and the U.S. is becoming increasingly unstable. When the current stock bubble pops it will inflict major damage on the U.S. economic and financial system.

Also consider that China is and has been accumulating a massive amount of physical gold. We can't track the true quantity because China intentionally does not report the gold that flows into the country through Beijing. It opened Beijing in 2014 for gold importation for the specific purpose of keeping the PBoC's gold "purchases discreet."

The graphic below is a screenshot from an April 21, 2014 South China Morning Post article that announced the opening of Beijing for gold importation. I've kept this report bookmarked since it was first published ten years ago. I underlined the "money-shot" by-line which discloses the PBoC's intent is to keep its gold purchases "discreet."

Many analysts tracking the quantity of gold flowing into China are not aware that unreported gold is imported through Beijing. This means that published reports of the amount of gold imported by China, particularly the World Council's numbers, are understated. Moreover, it is impossible to know the extent by which published reports are too low. Needless to say, the PBoC is accumulating considerably more gold than is widely understood.
China requires physical delivery of the gold that it buys - i.e. it is removed from London vaults and shipped to China. In effect, China may well be cleaning out the deliverable gold from London vaults, and much of that gold sitting in those vaults has been hypothecated. This means the bullion banks have to scramble to obtain bars with clear title that can be shipped to China.

This may explain why the price of gold over the last few weeks has been consistently moving higher into the London a.m. price fix when, typically, the price declines going into the fix. My theory is that this is the "scrambling" by the bullion banks to obtain bars that can be sent to China and to other eastern Central Banks who continue to accumulate gold. If my theory is correct, supply and demand in the physical market may now be dictating the price of gold rather than LBMA forwards and Comex futures.

Additionally, gold may be benefiting from the reemergence of rising price inflation. Even though the Fed has only hinted at possible rate cuts, it has unleashed liquidity into the banking system. The Monetary Base (bank reserves + currency/coin in circulation) is up 10% since March 2023. In addition the M1 and M2 money supply measures continue to persist just below their all-time highs. This continued devaluation of the dollar is manifesting as a rising gold price.

Finally, the prices of gold and silver may be benefiting from the escalating instability of the U.S. stock and credit markets. In my view, the current market is 1929, 2000 and 2008 combined. Since 2008 there's been a staggering amount of money printed and an even more staggering amount of credit issued at all levels of the system (Government, corporate, household). This flood of money and leverage has created the biggest stock bubble in U.S. history. When it pops it will devastate the U.S. economically, financially and socially. Thus, the move in gold may also be attributable to a "flight to safety" component in addition to the other factors.

Note: Some subscribers have asked me if they should take profits on FSM or if I think there's more upside. FSM is up 42.2% since the end of February. The chart has gone parabolic. Make no mistake, I am firm in my view that the Seguela mine alone is worth the current FSM market cap. That said, at some point there will be a "corrective" technical pullback. My advice would be to follow 50% (at least) of your position with a trailing stop-loss. That way the decision is out of your hands but you can benefit from the potential of more upside before the inevitable pullback hits. Ultimately, if the metals continue moving higher, over time FSM could easily double from the current price but obviously not in a straight line.

Also, the precious metals sector has risen sharply in a short period of time. GDX is up nearly 27% since the end of February. Silver is up 21.4% since mid-February. The chart of silver along with some select larger cap stocks (FSM, for instance) are starting to look parabolic. Momentum indicators are overbought.

I'd like to see the sector consolidate the recent sharp move. If that happens, and we launch again from a solid technical base, I think the junior microcaps will get a strong bid. Volume started moving into several of the names this week that I own and recommend. My suggestion if you have positions in silver/gold futures or big games in some producers would be to use trailing stops on part of your position (note: just part of the position).
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Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

So gold Closed within a whisker of $2350, will it fly again Sunday night when Asia returns?

It’s moved up fast from $1800 hey? Given the past 3 years consolidation period. Faster than you think. This situation is now a blistering blink and you miss it. Gold stocks won’t remain cheap for long. Newmont is up 30% since that horrendous broker downgrade. Says it all.

CRITICALLY though - According to Andrew McGuire - the Fed still to close its gold short too… it Will be forced to close now over the next few weeks, I suspect.

Other Central bank buying, globally, this past quarter has been progressive and overwhelming. This explains the “stair step up” pattern in gold. (Ie no pullbacks) These banks want gold higher; they have bought enough gold under $2000 which is stashed to support their sovereign currencies, so now they care less about what they pay going forward (and as we’ve heard it’s now as much about the de-dollarisation process as anything else - I first said around a year ago the US treasury was losing its status as the global pristine reserve asset in think this is shocking and real ).

The previous long standing inverse dollar - gold price correlation has totally broken down. Dollar and gold are rising together.

I think that now means $2000 gold is a figment of history. Forever. The ongoing “exchange for physical” gold process is a real thing; and it is being used by foreign actors to “drain the comex” and thus drive price. Today The physical market is wagging the tale of the comex dog ( for the first time in 20-odd years ).

Meanwhile - Inflation is still a thing. That the poor get to eat: Tea was up 35% in a day last week: consequently, China and BRICS nations will force negative real interest rates upon the US - via commodities and oil - creating a virtuous up cycle for gold.

India bought a tonne of gold in January. Another virtuous cycle is that De-dollarisation = printing of more dollars. (Needed to cover the huge US debt and trade deficits) which means even less incentive to hold dollars or $ denominated debt instruments.

So Q1 has seen a whopping increase in the price of gold. Largely ignored by the mainstream (albeit a few outlets have commented in bewilderment -they still say gold is a bad investment as it doesn’t pay interest- we’ll true but it doesn’t fall in value due to rampant inflation either)

In other words - the ‘pent up’ inflation in gold is starting to play out.

The Same central bank tactic for Q1 will be induced this 2nd quarter. Insiders say very large Central bank bids are sat at around $2200. This by design Catches out any US paper shorts. The once that were smashing gold previously!

Thus any US CTA paper short sells = are subsequently being converted and delivered as cheap physical bullion to the foreign banks.

This is Basil 3 in action. Insiders saying to mcguire it should continue to create a roughly $3000 gold floor.

This is the Gold revaluation essentially underway. Gold stocks are still extremely cheap - but for how long?

We talked about Basil 3 changing everything in the gold space- now you witness it ring side / this past 3 months.

Looks like the gold bugs were right.. Eh?

Either that or gold is sniffing a massive GFC type event.
In the end, Truth prevails...
jecsggp
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by jecsggp »

It's always nice to think about the fact that every additional dollar in the price of cold is pure profit for GGP. The total works cost per ounce for was already low. I wondered how much that cost has changed with recent and ongoing inflation in mining, ore transportation and milling costs.
GGP holder for the longer term.
Hydrogen
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Re: Welcome to 'Goldilocks' for Gold.. 🔥

Post by Hydrogen »

And 20 years of it, just in stage 2 😂
In the end, Truth prevails...
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