The Big Disconnect

[Ivan66]

Here I am again, I don't often feel the need to post here or read the posts. I understand why others might be here, and hope they find what they are after while reading members posts. That said there has been a lot of negative feeling of late around Greatland.

The company silence is deafening, the share price continuing its poor performance and downward trend, an optimist would say "sideways" but that depends which way you orientate your laptop. For a long time I have followed the charts (no expert at all), following each daily up, down and sideways action. For a long time, I'm talking 2021 we roughly followed the path of GDXJ, please don't go techy on me and convince me otherwise, but we did trail along on a similar path.

News of the JPM short had us wonder what was going on, and maybe reflect on have I done the right thing, "What do they know?" In the end that didnt amount to a hill of beans.

The trail of GDXJ continued. Gold went up and down and back up again, the volatilty rolled with every day. Throughout 2021 Greatland continued shrinking giving up its highs each day. I gave up many weeks of comparing GDX/GDXJ to Greatland, it was often very similar and often not similar.

Each day I have checked the daily trades on LSE for volume and the bigger buys and sells, No fact in this guesswork but it helps me keep in touch with the reality of what is and isn't happening, rather than hearing and reading bias. On a point of bias and ramping, I am not Greatland p1ssed, I have a decent long position with a low average. The biggest gamble for a non gambler of my life.

And then I saw a terrible slide with GDXJ constiuteunt companies and Greatland was at the very bottom. Quite odd such a marvellous asset should be at the bottom of a list as diverse as GDXJ. As if the Gold didnt exist, and was never going to be mined, and the top shelf board is a figment of our deluded imaginations.


So I went back and started looking over old stuff, back as far as 2019 looking through old RNS, news articles and so on, then I re -watched a recording of an online meet with a reputable PM market broker & geologist. It was an in depth chat about the Gold market, juniors and new discovery's.

Something that came up was the mostly unkown and unfollowed AIm market, we all love to hate. Rife with spivs and MM corruption that we rarely get to hear about, but know damn well it happens. They will be here reading this perhaps, Like they did in the private Maru chat group. Spivs. I don't care what they read from my posts, this is about me and what I think. I am prone to being wrong, but I have my colours on my sleeve and detest corruption, dishonest people, criminals.

Anyway back to the theme, I decided to look at my charts, having made the decision that AIM was the biggest weight around Greatland's neck currently, and the spivs therein maintaining a steady downward tilt of selling into and then accumulating. I feel we have a mixture of long position accumulation and short position selling, not disjointed but coordinated playing the share price to maintain the downward spiral.

What the charts did show me, and bear in mind it is through my goggles which sometimes need a wipe, they showed me the PM move started on the 28th february 2024. I have checked many companies and a lot of them flipped positive on or therabouts that day.


Up until the 28th february , Greatland had continued with a loose follow of the GDXJ path. Checking the disconnect of Greatland against GDX brings the same diverging pattern.

So while may of the worlds best juniors have started making fabulous gains, Greatland diverged from those moves and spirallled further down.


Anyone with greater experience of charting is welcome to make their own comparisons and then disagree with me, I would love to see a deeper more experienced reply.


Let me know what you think. I'm today reflecting on the low quality of AIM, its market makers and the mostly unregulated short betters.


Why would this disconnect happen when everything else goes up ? Ideas on a postcard please.



AIM is a dog folks.

[FuttBucker]

Tl;dr

[ManFromUruguay]

Very good post Ivan. I am beginning to feel like we are being taken for a ride. Shaun appears to have the best interest of shareholders at heart however he has never bought shares with his own money on the open market and he continues to draw a very substantial salary. So if things go pear shaped what does he stand to lose??
Staying invested and keeping the faith but my belief is reluctantly diminishing.
MFU

[Hydrogen]

Appreciate your views guys …

MFU you are judging the situation by price and price alone. Fundamentally we are strong and getting stronger. Newmont have just presented us with a tremendous opportunity.

But the fudsters have ground people down and suppressed the price. They love to play mind games that gold is all time highs and GGP isn’t or at all time lows (which is garbage) one of my accounts is 290% up - well surprise,neither is Skeena or GDXJ. The subtle FUD accounts like Culpepper took a good while for people to fully sniff out; but he’s posted 1000s of negative posts on ggp to make people feel scared - to feel frustrated and worried - like you do tonight.

No coincidence then , that meanwhile instos are loading up and cheap - Jupiter - L&G - Global Prime Partners Dynamic 1872 etc all bought 30% higher. And all in the top 10 holders (bar Dynamic) in the past 6-12 months or so .

Gold and copper is a lot higher now too - just we aren’t producing it yet. A lot of other developers are showing similar shape charts. GDXJ is weighted to producers not developers so it’s not a fair comparison in that regard.

The shorts know PIs just look at price. And it’s been a rollercoaster (mainly due to L&G buying so much in December sparking a massive rally).

Typically; Pis are known to buy high and sell low.

I’m feeling it’s just a product of the present hiatus and slight uncertainty thats being exploited in extremis by short sellers … we know this Actusray short is in play and I think fud and shorts are working double overtime trying to break down PIs while ‘surprise surprise’ institutional investors hoover up, which has also probably affected sentiment too. How do they get to buy in so cheap? - it’s pissed me off a little to. But If Shaun is mid deal then, it’s hard for him to be able to say much so there is a news dearth.

But the fact is News of this deal could land any day now…. And I’m confident any deal will be 1) highly accretive 2) low
or even non dilutionary - manly because of Wyloo’s actions - they made it clear they don’t want dilution at 6p 3) be excellent for GGP long term.

But people may also be uncertain about Telfer too.. I’m comfortable that Shaun can run Telfer - it’s his bread and butter. He is in his element with this, and our destiny as the minority 30% Havieron junior holder will be condemned to history. I’m sure we come out of this as at least 50% equal stake holders or carried for capex etc.

I’m now accumulating more at these levels. I bought a bunch at 5.9 last week. They are totally undervaluing the asset at $2200-3000 gold (which given tonight’s news) could well be the bottom end of the range and intergenerational floor in the gold price. I fully expect a huge gold rally next week.

There are some huge forecasts for gold now $15000 to 20000 - due to QE5 - which would be 8x to 11x from 1900.

Paxos gold which is some sort of gold crypto token backed by 1 Oz of gold has traded between $2680-$3000 tonight.

[Hydrogen]

Further to that post Ivan GGP has almost certainly moved 'sideways' since August 2022.

I would also argue - this is post possibly quite a negative view... ? Its also called an accumulation or a consolidation .

" the share price continuing its poor performance and downward trend, an optimist would say "sideways" but that depends which way you orientate your laptop. "

Not sure what type of laptop you have Ivan66, but that's about as sideways a chart since August 22 as my sprit level could muster. Please note the horizontal lines.

[Ivan66]

Further to that post Ivan GGP has almost certainly moved 'sideways' since August 2022.

I would also argue - this is post possibly quite a negative view... ? Its also called an accumulation or a consolidation .

" the share price continuing its poor performance and downward trend, an optimist would say "sideways" but that depends which way you orientate your laptop. "




GGP_2024-04-14_18-30-47.png


Not sure what type of laptop you have Ivan66, but that's about as sideways a chart since August 22 as my sprit level could muster. Please note the horizontal lines.

I know its gone sideways Ive watched it for the last X number of months, my point was related to the flip to positive among Gold miners occurring on the 28th February 2024. While Greatland went the opposite way. It went down while they mostly went up. IE much shorter term than the sideways for months.

I'm not negative on the company at all, just frustrated with the wait. I wrote a post this morning sat in bed, and my Ipad lost it when I looked elsewhere to check something, so I gave up. Didn't want want to fuel any negativity, Its easy done given where we are. So maybe I should of been more clear.

In a nutshell, the divergence speaks volumes, IE the games you mention, it also highlights to me what a dross place AIM is to invest. Greatland is being taken advantage of while the silence is in place, The company has gone from the daily subject on twitter, to almost nothing. Likewise the forums, a few nay sayers and other than that mostly long term holders waiting for the news. The silence is frustrating, but ultimately there is almost zero froth on social media or elsewere about it.


Sorry for any confusion. And there's nowt wrong with my laptop.

[Hydrogen]

We are not a miner Ivan. We are a developer with no production. There’s a difference.

Like Degrey flat over 2 years

Or Skeena 53% down

Or Discovery Silver

These are all devolpers building mines or at DFS stage. When the market decides to put fair value back into the best development projects that’s when GGP will take off or at some point it will be evident that we are close to production and we will take off.

This is why Macro is so important - something Liam and many others don’t get. It’s the flow into the specific sectors which causes good stocks like Discovery silver to take off… that could be next week next months of in 6 months but you can guarantee at some point with gold where it is it will have to happen.

[Ivan66]

I get you, the penny has dropped. We havent followed the uplift since the 28th because we dont have any Gold. Simples.....


News will change this in a heartbeat.

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

This is why Macro is so important - something Liam and many others don’t get. It’s the flow into the specific sectors which causes good stocks like Discovery silver to take off… that could be next week next months of in 6 months but you can guarantee at some point with gold where it is it will have to happen.

I refute that in the strongest terms. I have my own macro group, so please do not confuse my complaints about posting in the wrong place, with what you think I may or may not “get”.

[jecsggp]

Calm down , lads

[Hydrogen]

You have your own Macro Group...? Wowzers.

Apologies Liam.. please do forgive me I just recall last year pretty much getting hounded out of Telegram by you for posting 'Gold Macro' in the GGP Telegram group. And for posting gold macro on here in the wrong place here - I'm Sorry - but glad you finally agree the relevance.

This is why Macro is so important - something Liam and many others don’t get. It’s the flow into the specific sectors which causes good stocks like Discovery silver to take off… that could be next week next months of in 6 months but you can guarantee at some point with gold where it is it will have to happen.

I refute that in the strongest terms. I have my own macro group, so please do not confuse my complaints about posting in the wrong place, with what you think I may or may not “get”.

[Bottle Rocket - Liam]

I have always seen the relevance -

However, it has always been my intent that there should be a segregation of the information, so as to avoid things becoming diluted or lost., else these days we would end up with more macro posts than Greatland posts, and my inbox fills up with people complaining they cannot find any information on Greatland, in a Greatland forum/chat/group.

Which is why here, it has its own space, so that it is easy to find. (which is easier than in a telegram group).

[Hydrogen]

Well it turns out Speedy others, and I were right about the Macro. We are well on our way now to > $3000 gold - something which everyone thought unlikely if not even totally impossible -

A fact which in turn transforms huge swathes of marginal GGP sub economic breccia resource into a highly economic opportunity... of potentially gargantuan scale. ( Just don't mention Goliath )

The world has changed : https://twitter.com/GlobeEyeNews/status ... dhQ4Q&s=08.

BRICS calls on the Middle East to stop using the US dollar for oil trade settlements.

[Ivan66]

Now I recall why I don't bother with forums. I would of preferred my thread wasn't hijacked for petulent replies if thats ok.