MH01 on LSE has made a pretty good comparison table on GGP vs ASX listed miners based on mcap and PE ratio but it’s one approach based on production. Now as GGP isn't producing from Hav yet - it's developing it - and has to get through the tricky build out phase... I wondered about a more like for like comparison:
Personally though I think comparing mcap value per resource Oz is better metric. And SPARTAN RESOURCES Is possibly one of the best corporate comparisons, because their situation is really quite similar to Greatland.
Spartan have 60% smaller but 3x higher grade 3.35moz resource to develop and at their current Mcap Spartan is valued at US$364 per resource ounce.
IMO They are in a weaker capital position because they are not currently producing gold or cash at the fab gold prices (their existing Daldranga mine is on care and maintenance) whilst they prove up and develop the new adjacent Never Never and Pepper deposits: They have however just raised 220m AUD to add top their AUD $70m cash pile.
They have an existing a mill at Dalganrage and a new high grade underground deposit that requires full development and a capex spend of at least Au $250m
GGP HOWEVER is currently priced at JUST US$130 per resource ounce. This is based GGPs 8.2moz at Hav + 0.5moz at Telfer - so at 8.2p todays price that = less than $130/oz in the ground and on surface.
So why is Spartan priced at broadly 2.8x times GGP? IMO Because of the sh*t-fest that is AIM, frankly that's why. And that markets lack of understanding of Greatland. Which is now becoming fully apparent.
By direct comparison GGP should have a Mcap of at least $2.95bn (or 17p) based 8.2moz @ $360/oz on a like for like comparison of a similar development scenario company, but it should also be noted that while Spartan is higher grade, in reality, it is a far smaller far and probably far less cash generative operation with shorter mine life.
Remember when it comes to gold, Grade isn't always king: Scale + metallurgy are both probably more important. ( See hTTps://stockhead.com.au/resources/when ... -not-king/. ). We have a lot of copper. They don't.
IF Shaun Day can add say 1.5-2+ moz at Telfer taking GGP as a group to roughly 10.2moz x $360 per oz (Spartan valued at $364/oz) THEN GGP = Aud $5.82bn, USD $3.71bn or £3.2bn or circa 25p
Now it may be that Spartan's gold ounces are somehow better (which I have over-looked???). Yes They are a bit shallower (sure 150-700m) and 2.5 to 3 x higher grade than Greatland's , but they are still underground development and Spartan's TOTAL resource is just 22MT so their mine life is very much lower : only 22MT vs 130MT for Havieron alone says it all.
And further check out their Oz per vertical metre profile - they have just 1000 to 4500 average tops while GGP has more than double that at 8000-9000 oz per vertical metre over 600m (ie a similar lateral profile):
Given GGPs 22mt PA mill (around 10x Spartan's Processing capacity) IMO we will always have the upper hand. We don't need their grade - we have HUGE scale and processing capacity instead... We will produce far more ounces than their 2.5 mt PA mill can ever produce; even at 2-3x grade.
Then we have this other hypothesised / speculated 5moz at Telfer to content with. If that proves up, and we are >15moz resource at US $360 per oz ... That's Aud $8.4bn US $5.4bn or 32p per share..
As mentioned, I chose Spartan because 1) they have an existing mine and plant built on site - right next to the new discovery, that’s also ready to build so circumstances directly comparable to Telfer 2) they have at least Au $250m to build out this new mine and upgrade their mill - and it's an underground so its very similar, albeit not as deep as Havieron and 3) they have just placed and raised $220m (to add to their $70m cash) for the capex to bring on Pepper and Never Never. Of note, the existing mine is on care and maintenance (so they have the disadvantage of not being a current producer).
All data can be found here hTTps://spartanresources.com.au/investo ... uncements/
As mentioned in the Samo interview - Northern Star Valued DeGrey at $376 per resource ounce when you take account to the capex. And they have huge strip ratio and much lower grade and the problem of 30% refractory gold (metallurgically problematic gold recovery).
Personally I think we are worth a good bit more than both Spartan and De grey - even if they have Scale (DeGrey) and grade (Spartan) - because Havieron sort of sits between them and has both huge Scale and really good Grade and we have the copper.