Willem Middelkoop's Take on Greatland Now - Assets Worth $5 Billion + Other Tenements

[CanisLycaon]

Willem Middelkoop post on X:

Great example of the current undervaluation in mining:

Greatland Gold (GGP) just completed buying the Telfer Gold Mine from Newmont. Building a plant like Telfer, 4th largest gold mine in Australia would cost at least $2bln.

Why?

They made the huge Havieron gold-copper discovery right next door. It’s the second largest gold (copper) discovery in Australia.

(Almost as large as DeGrey’s Hemi discovery. Northern Start tries buying it for $3.2 bln)

So GGP owns assets (valued according to comparable) worth $5bln

Today’s Market Capitalization is still sub $1bln

Telfer Mine: Value $2bln
Havieron Project: $3bln

(And huge land positions in the Paterson area)

Outlook:

They might see a revaluation when they will get a second listing (ASX-Sydney) in H1 2025, and Q1 numbers will start open some more eyes.

Disclaimer: GGP is our second largest position, we own almost 0.5% of Greatland Gold

Study and do your own due diligence ..

(thank me later )

https://x.com/wmiddelkoop/status/1866057269525323811

[Hydrogen]

Regarding Middlecoup's valuation you have to take account of Capex - Northern Star effectively paid $6.5bn AUD for De Grey due to the Capex required above and beyond the take out price to get Hemi into production (even considering Degress 800m cash raised.

... So regarding CAPEX and Valuation - consider this:

Here are a range of DFS numbers for mine build CAPEX of recent Australia Peer group minning projects (all figs in AUD unless otherwise):

Mcphillamies (gold project) AUD $1bn for 7Mt pa,
KCGM AUD $1.5bn for 14mt pa
De Grey 10MT pa (+ 800k tonne Pox plant) AUD $1.5bn,
Rex Minerals AUD $850m 6mt scenario,
Rio / Winu (deep deposit) estimated $1.5bn to $2bn for initial 10mt pa plant (rising to 20 MT)

Now what do you notice?

1) The Low end is circa US $500m (for a 6MT mine ) to the top end to between US$750-950m US (for a circa 10MT mine)

That is TOTAL CAPEX including contingency - go and fact check me.

2) Now from reading various DFS at least 35-40% ( and sometimes up to 50%) of the Total Capex IS THE MILL . Go fact check me.

3) What do we have - that Degrey Mcphillamies, Winu, and KGCM - Do not? Telfer's camp and accommodation, power station, water supply gas supply, roads, storage and Tailings facility and 22Mt Mill

Now, if we were a Greenfield project - OUR basket of peers (above) puts GGPs project CAPEX for a 7-8mt. Mine at circa AUD $1bn to 1.2bn Or $630m to $950m USD

Next: subtract 35-40% for the cost of the mill, and you a left with a price range to build an underground mine and some mine infrastructure based on a basket of 5 Australian Peers DFS documents. In this example - lets take 37% off for sake of argument)

This provides for a capex range at Havieron : of US $397m to $441m for a large 7-10mt project (funny that! As $397m was Newcrest's budget for at 2 mt project).

Lets add a 15% contingency (overrun/C**k up factor)

Based on regional Australian peer group Havieron's capex range is $397m to 450m for a 6MT operation at Havieron up to $441-507m for a whopping 10MT mine.

Ps - A 10MT mine at Havieron would produce some 800-900 koz of gold Equivalent;

At 3g that would makes Hav-Telfer the 2nd or 3rd biggest, most profitable mine in Australia and almost a 1 million oz producer.

[Hydrogen]

No one has taken the bate and run with it... yet. So I shall spell it out:

In the hatchet job PFS, Newcrest Mining over charged GGP shareholders (or undercooked us) in their Havieron PFS by a factor of 2.5x to 3x on CAPEX.

I'm so glad the BDU (Newcrest Business development Unit ) shysters all lost their jobs

That is such a huge amount - it's not skinning us 20% or 30% it's like 250% ... totally Maddening,

(Now I realiseHavieron is likely deeper than some of these peer projects but it's only 400m and not 1200 (vs say 200m or open pit - doesn't really matter though whether open pit or underground costs are similar )

Consequently, our production profile should have been 5-6Mt for $397m spend (and not 2Mt )

This is why I half expect thIS new PFS to be an ORDER of magnitude more impressive, for the same CAPEX (or just s a bit more) and it could in principle be some 5x bigger for a $100-150 m more.

What a place to be...?

I just cannot wait for at least some Truth to Prevail.