30-40% move day is incoming?

[Hydrogen]

Now IMO this TOTALLY Feels to me like the shorts are fighting each other... trade for trade.

This action isn't Pis, put it that way...

This week was just the early skirmishes, the smash n grabs. But IMO, make no mistake, they have hardly moved off the starting blocks... THe main event - a 30-40% day is ded ahead.

So The Shorts are increasing -2m a day... BUT why? Are they trying to hold it down. Damage limitation tactics?

I'm not sure... But the SP is much, much higher than the 82m Plus stock on loan (which if sold) would imply, the SP has become fully unshackled from the Short for the first time in 8-9 months.

Could it be that one of the shorts has bought back the majority, but is at the same time holding and loaning more stock, - essentially holding all that's available to loan ? - to block the other short from operating... ?

Could it be that 1 Institution is essentially blocking access to loan shares, to protect a new long position?

This is a logical explanation to the SP shooting up and the Loan Stock shooting up in tandem... or we are going to some seriously explosive squeeze action and soon.

And where are Implode, Toothless Twit-face and bog eyed Biggles now?

Bricking lumps somewhere? Probably. I take a degree of pleasure at the thought, that through reckless greed and arrogance they are about to lose all their profits, to the dark Dog eat Dog world they inhabit.

And yes, My smile continues to widen. Quite a lot.

#Superstock. Squeeze them.

[FuttBucker]

Now IMO this TOTALLY Feels to me like the shorts are fighting each other... trade for trade.

This action isn't Pis, put it that way... (MAYBE)

This week was just the early skirmishes, the smash n grabs. But IMO, make no mistake, they have hardly moved off the starting blocks... THe main event - a 30-40% day is ded ahead. (MAYBE)

So The Shorts are increasing -2m a DAY (FACT) ... BUT why? Are they trying to hold it down. Damage limitation tactics? (MAYBE)

I'm not sure... But the SP is much, much higher than the 82m Plus stock on loan (which if sold) would IMPLY (MAYBE) the SP has become fully unshackled from the Short for the first time in 8-9 MONTHS (MAYBE)

Could it be that one of the shorts has bought back the majority, but is at the same time holding and loaning more stock, - essentially holding all that's available to loan ? - to block the other short from operating... ? (MAYBE)

Could it be that 1 Institution is essentially blocking access to loan shares, to protect a new long POSITION? (MAYBE)

This is A (ONE, POSSIBLE) logical explanation to the SP shooting up and the Loan Stock shooting up in tandem... or we are going to some seriously explosive squeeze action and soon. (MAYBE)

And where are Implode, Toothless Twit-face and bog eyed Biggles now? (possibly tired of being abused for not immediately agreeing with the big short narrative)

Bricking lumps somewhere? Probably (MAYBE) . I take a degree of pleasure at the thought, that through reckless greed and arrogance they are about to lose all their PROFITS (MAYBE), to the dark Dog eat Dog world they (POSSIBLY) inhabit.

And yes, My smile continues to widen. Quite a lot.

#Superstock. Squeeze THEM (MAYBE)

A lot of what you say is possible. Some of it is even plausible. The issue I have is that there appears to be a narrative here about the big bad short as though there is a cartel, and 'we' have declared war on them.

This narrative is based on a large number of observations of sells/buys and assuming/inferring motivation and collusion.

It may well all be correct. Part of may be correct. It is possible that none of it is correct.

I do not believe that every convulsion in SP has to be traced back to the number and movement of shorts, and I think its a little irresponsible to push this unconfirmed story line so frequently and strongly no matter how much you say 'imo' or 'is it possible?'. I don't agree that 'just stating my opinion' is a get out of jail free card to say anything you like.

[FuttBucker]

I think we all get the picture... Question is are they Genuine shorts about to get crucified, or, Sacrificial shorts designed to facilitate accumulation.

...or just a moderate amount of unrelated shorts which is a reasonable expectation for one of the highest profile AIM stocks.

[Costa]

I think we all get the picture... Question is are they Genuine shorts about to get crucified, or, Sacrificial shorts designed to facilitate accumulation.

...or just a moderate amount of unrelated shorts which is a reasonable expectation for one of the highest profile AIM stocks.

No

[Hydrogen]

I think we all get the picture... Question is are they Genuine shorts about to get crucified, or, Sacrificial shorts designed to facilitate accumulation.

...or just a moderate amount of unrelated shorts which is a reasonable expectation for one of the highest profile AIM stocks.

Well see, BF , as Costa says, no. We're definitely special. Very special.

Cos, see, I looked into short interest in almost every other gold stock on the AIM market... and the Main market.

I checked Kefi Gold , Altyngold , Hoschild , Hummingbird, Resolute Mining, Endeavour, Ariana, Pure gold, Solg, Caracal

No shorts on any of them

I found 1 other - Fresnillo - out of 15 odd 'comparable' stocks with an outstanding short.... (Fres has 0.5% short)

Let alone the whopping ~2% plus now...

Further JPM Asset Management are not shorting any other Gold stocks...

Does that clarify things for you?

[Hydrogen]

out of 15 odd 'comparable' stocks no shorts apart from Fres
AND I should add "with the exception of the Russian ones"

[poniexpress]

So Guys,
What is the end game. Positive as per Hydrogen or what?
Can the investment case for GGP override the short bubble?
Instinct says yes but with no short supporting evidence from me.

[speedymeadie]

Hi All. One thing is for sure JPM will not be the one with no chair. ATB Speedy

[Jiffy]

One crazy theory that came into my head today was this, or is it crazy?
JPM whom have a current 20.35million shares on loan, and the others as yet unknown parties have what is it, some 62.70 m of shares on loan as of today, (Ref Ortex) and they may well have an agreement?

Shorter’s MO will be to drive the price down so that certain institutional/HNWI holders can then accumulate on the cheap.

When the institutional holders have reached their target plus the shorters own borrowing liability, shorter’s quickly close their position after collecting their borrowed shares from the institutional/HNWI’s ,and then return borrowed shares back to the original lender of the shares.

JPM et al then simply disappear into the sunset :O)

[Hydrogen]

Jiffy, I think it’s crazy…
I know someone who tried to buy 10m at 10.7p around June when it first touched 9.8p … the SP just crashed with the market in may (and the ggp shorts according to ortex went from 40m to 60m)
It was totally impossible… the price went up 10%
And they only could get 5m after 3 days.
There was literally no stock available, at those stupid prices.
It was all an illusion to get you to baulk and sell.
Yes something/someone may have accumulated some stock…. In this zone. But not much.
And the shape of that Wycoff chart I shared with Paddy does look to chime…
But it was just not possible to accumulate 150m or 200m size blocks, as it were.. Even when our ‘dumb’ ETFs were conned into selling 27m and 13m (that’s only 40m total…) But pis will have got a decent top up amount, and the short only took 6m back according to Ortex.
So let’s Say someone has somehow slowly scrounged together another 40m-50m slowly over time , From scraping the barrel daily… that’s only 80m assuming they took all the etf stock.
Our short has barely covered themselves ( for all the time and trading costs). Plus pis were scooping up bargains and they must have snaffled a decent percentage of this cheap stock.
And then there’s Bloomberg Terminal …

BT shows / supports very little overall change. The PI brokers like Hargreaves Landsdown have added stock over the past year. And so have most large holders..

This short still has to get out… and there is no easy road.
And good luck with buying 80m
(when buying just 5m took 3 days… )

[Hydrogen]

Dont believe me... ? Well, check out these really juicy short (loan) charts from over the past 26 months....

And then the same picture, but closer in ... over the past year

THe large pink bar beautifully, and graphically, represents the increase in Loan (short) for the exact same SP...

Something, at some point.... IS going to snap ...

And when it does...

You are going to need more than special glasses...

[Spondy]

What are the triggers that will make a short decide to buy back the shorted shares?

Could never buying the shares back be a cheaper option than paying the market price?

Could they maintain the short indefinitely and continue to pay the fees for borrowing them?

The Ortex short data topic most recently shows 2.14% freefloat on loan with 0.5% flagged. Acknowledging that not all shares on loan are necessarily shorted, is it correct to say the 1.64% unflagged must be distributed between a minimum of four parties for each of those to be less than 0.5% of the threshold to declare?

Unless multiple shorters decide to buy back at the same time and in a short period of time, is it possible the buying back could be absorbed into the daily volume and go relatively unnoticed and not affect the share price?

I think it's been suggest before that a corporate predator on whos behalf the short is operated would be prepared to lose on the short in order to gain from a lower share price in the event of a corporate action. If this were the case would they may want to reduce or close the short either before or after making an offer?

[Hydrogen]

What are the triggers that will make a short decide to buy back the shorted shares?

Who knows when/if panic sets in, or something unexpected happens... circular firing squad initiated... ?

Could never buying the shares back be a cheaper option than paying the market price?
The shares are on loan from the likes of VanEck - they must be returned when they are recalled

Could they maintain the short indefinitely and continue to pay the fees for borrowing them?
Not really, not indefinitely: if growth drilling increases value they will eventually be closed, or, if there was a critical vote, like a takeover vote, for example, the shares would be recalled, or , because they may be recalled for some other reason ...

The Ortex short data topic most recently shows 2.14% freefloat on loan with 0.5% flagged. Acknowledging that not all shares on loan are necessarily shorted, is it correct to say the 1.64% unflagged must be distributed between a minimum of four parties for each of those to be less than 0.5% of the threshold to declare? I would agree with that.. - However we do not know for sure whether they may or may not be somehow related.

Unless multiple shorters decide to buy back at the same time and in a short period of time, is it possible the buying back could be absorbed into the daily volume and go relatively unnoticed and not affect the share price?

Well maybe - but If it was that easy, then they would be buying back now, surely? ...not over stretching their situation to defend their weakening position... Almost every imagined exit door they could have sought has now been closed... They totally misjudged the SP... Bank finance will slam another door shut. I reckon we have about $35m in the bank we only need to raise another $35 plus some contingency... IMO

I think it's been suggest before that a corporate predator on whos behalf the short is operated would be prepared to lose on the short in order to gain from a lower share price in the event of a corporate action. If this were the case would they may want to reduce or close the short either before or after making an offer?

Remains to be seen... But only another 6months of 2022 left and things are really looking up in the gold market... The prospect of a significant recession is being priced into the bond market with the Yield Curve now severely inverted. This will no doubt spur investment demand in safe haven assets like gold as the effects of long term elevated inflation destroys company earnings and access to free money, across almost all sectors...

[Spondy]

Thank you for the reply Hydrogen. An event triggering a recall would be interesting.

As you say, the doors are closing. The 5% option was one and soon the bank financing to production will be another. Drill results and MREs will increase the pressure and something will have to give.

[poniexpress]

A fascinating discussion Hydrogen. I wonder which of the potential GGP positives or unexpected corporate surprise for the remainder of 2022/or for early 2023 will be that trigger.

[Chrisatbirdies]

So if a take over bid is initiated or an offer was made for haverion, the shares would be recalled in a short (no pun intended) timeline. Thus forcing the share price up along with other buying at that time

[Hydrogen]

There's more... And I'm really enjoying it...

I think I have an explanation that talks to the past few weeks price action. And this apparently idiotic massive move north from 72m to 87m in the short position:

It felt like last week we had a major buyer in town, right? ... Like an insto buyer, so it felt...

well hello hello!! >>>>> It looks to me like Ned Naylor Leyland, of Jupiter Gold and Silver fund, has just bought a 10m GGP starter position.

This caught my attention, because a friend of mine knows Ned. And privately I've been feeding them research about GGP and furnishing detailed arguments about why Ned should maybe trim some of his De Grey position and find some money to take a GGP stake.

Not saying it's all my work..but every little helps, especially with the backing of Bamps on calcs Gold mining man Ricky on the recovery rates, conversion factors and waste ratios... etc! What a team?

IMO - It's entirely plausible that our short - can you smell their dollops of FUD today? hehehe!!! - are now in VERY SERIOUS trouble and were simply fighting Jupiter's buying all last week ; DoH! https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xlon/ggp/ownership

(and are now 20% further up Poop creek than they were a week ago). Oopsie.!!!!

Only 88m to buy back Boys.

Pure Popcorn moment...

[‘96dc2]

Nothing to add, other than, this make me smile. Hopefully things fall into place. I’ve been waiting for a few years, I’ve no problem sitting on my hands a bit more.

[Hydrogen]

https://www.jupiteram.com/uk/en/profess ... al-organic

[choddy]

Hydro, what are your thoughts on the Blackrock Fund Advisors increase?