The 10 Yr US Bond market is heading towards a very key level. There are a few things going on here and to keep an eye on. First let's look at the daily.
A bounce will not be so good for equities, gold etc.
Daily.
Since the Covid low (March 2020) the 10yr has moved more than x10. That is a crazy move in the time scales. The price action now is key though. We do have a bullish bat sitting in what 'could' have been described as a bull flag. It may still turn out to be a bull flag. Why? Well we're back to the Harmonic Framework. The bullish Bat at the top found support at he Hop and reversed with grace beauty to hit target 1... A type 1 move. After hitting target 1 we expect a bearish HSI to signal the Type 2 Return move, which it did do and it did return back to where we find ourselves right now. Again, the framework meeting expectations. Now the expectation is a Type 2 Reversal. In this case a bullish move to Target 2 at 4.062% But a break and hold below the key level 3.447% will see the bigger pattern come into play.
Harmonics...harmonic waves of price action can take time to play out as the pattern resonates across the market.
This could mean that
maybe a bigger pull from elsewhere within the framework. In other words, where is that gravity coming from? How will we know?
Let's look at the weekly.
Weekly
As we can see there are back to back bearish patterns. A Shark and in play now a Bat. It is this Bat which could have more 'gravity' and pull the action away from that bat on the daily. The trading ranges (of the patterns) are the opposites and the weekly Bat could act like a magnet. Now these things take time to play out, right. The zone we are is again a key level... we just broke below and failed the retest of the HOP. Looking left we have a previous swing high/top zone. The question is, will this be a supply or demand zone? We'll find out in the next month or so. Certainly by the time Spring is underway.
If we break below what are the targets? Initially i see XA offering some kind of support and creating a range of 3.441 down to 2.919. And ultimately a run towards the target of 1.969 (Target 1 of the Bearish Bat).
But as stated above, we are at a key level.
which needs to play out. In other words a decision needs to be made.
