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US 10 Yr Gov Bonds Yields

Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2023 8:25 am
by Costa
The 10 Yr US Bond market is heading towards a very key level. There are a few things going on here and to keep an eye on. First let's look at the daily.

A bounce will not be so good for equities, gold etc.

Daily.
US10Y_2023-01-13_08-06-19_7826b.png
Since the Covid low (March 2020) the 10yr has moved more than x10. That is a crazy move in the time scales. The price action now is key though. We do have a bullish bat sitting in what 'could' have been described as a bull flag. It may still turn out to be a bull flag. Why? Well we're back to the Harmonic Framework. The bullish Bat at the top found support at he Hop and reversed with grace beauty to hit target 1... A type 1 move. After hitting target 1 we expect a bearish HSI to signal the Type 2 Return move, which it did do and it did return back to where we find ourselves right now. Again, the framework meeting expectations. Now the expectation is a Type 2 Reversal. In this case a bullish move to Target 2 at 4.062% But a break and hold below the key level 3.447% will see the bigger pattern come into play.

Harmonics...harmonic waves of price action can take time to play out as the pattern resonates across the market.

This could mean that maybe a bigger pull from elsewhere within the framework. In other words, where is that gravity coming from? How will we know?

Let's look at the weekly.

Weekly
US10Y_2023-01-13_08-24-42_23389.png
As we can see there are back to back bearish patterns. A Shark and in play now a Bat. It is this Bat which could have more 'gravity' and pull the action away from that bat on the daily. The trading ranges (of the patterns) are the opposites and the weekly Bat could act like a magnet. Now these things take time to play out, right. The zone we are is again a key level... we just broke below and failed the retest of the HOP. Looking left we have a previous swing high/top zone. The question is, will this be a supply or demand zone? We'll find out in the next month or so. Certainly by the time Spring is underway.

If we break below what are the targets? Initially i see XA offering some kind of support and creating a range of 3.441 down to 2.919. And ultimately a run towards the target of 1.969 (Target 1 of the Bearish Bat). But as stated above, we are at a key level.
which needs to play out. In other words a decision needs to be made.

Re: US 10 Yr Gov Bonds

Posted: Fri Jan 13, 2023 5:39 pm
by Costa
+1 Green candle with a possible close above the HOP. A little rejection on the day from above but,

That HSI and check back gives has now given what appears to be an agreement (green in this case) candle. No decision being made yet. Need to close green.

If we want stocks etc to move bullishly, we need lower rates.

Watching this closely.

Re: US 10 Yr Gov Bonds Yields

Posted: Wed Jan 18, 2023 9:43 pm
by Costa
Rates dropped 5.08% (10Yr US) today / at time of writing breaking previous low. Tracing out a few ideas regarding targets should we get continuation.

1. ABCD of the top at 2.989%
2. 1.618 at 3.080%
3. Bat, should we proceed to BAMM, at 2.715%
US10Y_2023-01-18_21-42-29_cc10a.png
https://twitter.com/CostaMooney/status/ ... 0827319296