GGPChat

Gold is getting really interesting now.

GViZ otherwise know as gold volatility has stayed very low around 11 or under. We’ve just seen gold put in a series of higher lows, moving essentially sideways in consolidating pattern and it also closed making a higher high. Before pulling back a little after Powell's dubious speech on Wednesday.

But here’s the thing:

Gold is fully in the investable bucket with GVIS anywhere under 17/16. This is really now telling you something big is evolving macro economically.

Powell just held rates but the market said No!! you’re wrong…. and rates climbed significantly regardless - bond Yields ARE breaking out higher across the curve since the FOMC meeting.. and meanwhile gold trading sideways pretty much suggests a huge move higher is imminent

Astonishingly, the BOND Market basically just gave Powell the middle finger it seems … he’s lost them….. could it be they are losing trust or have now totally lost trust in him.

Seems the reason is most likely Powell buckled to Goldman/Carlyle/BREIT pressures. He claimed he was “data dependent” on rates, then backtracked. He chose to tell the market he was not raising rates, despite the totally obvious re acceleration in inflation - oil just jumped roughly 40% in price since may. Inflation is back and big time.

Consequently the bond market is now calling out Powell as a liar… and he did tell lies - he’s probably being influenced by powerful financial lobbyists who want a more dovish 'cowbell' monetary policy ( and their tech bubble back..)

Stuff is breaking up now across the US tech sector. Apple, Amazon and NVIDIA all breaking long term trade trend support. These are 3 of the big 7 stocks holding almost everything up.

And as most of you will know.,. The consumer is definitely not in great shape. Tin hats time folks for US tech sector.

If Powell was being “begged” by certain market participants not to raise rates, but the bond market raises them anyway…. Then It’s ‘going off’ imo.

Gold is on the cusp here of a HUGE move north IMO.


You can see the long term gold tail support (blue line and the big yellow arrows) going back to 2016 in play... and the break to a single higher high (the green arrow) - This suggest Gold is trying to break out now, higher, but bond yields and the dollar are effectively holding a ballon underwater ... I give a it few days to a few weeks before we see something decisive.

Not sure whet the trigger will be - but there's big trouble brewing in China where an absolutely massive property company Country Garden is about to default on it's bond coupon - they are already late, and well into the 'grace period' which ends in about 10 days.

Someone big, somewhere is panicking .

When it happens - it will be fast. You can see the formation of the previous major 'multi month' bull flag in this long term chart. And what happened next:


You can see here a breakdown in the S&P 500... Now its not definitive. But That's the bond market causing a sell off. Risk tech stocks don't like very high interest rates... US tech bubble stocks Tesla require easy money policy so companies can borrow money at low rates to fund their growth and buy their stock back.

And It's quite possible this dip breakdown could signal a major turning point. Interesting also that Brent fell so hard this morning.

Is this the boom we have been waiting for? Feels like quantum leap...

hi All. Not a fan of charting, but it is a useful tool, and mainly use fundamentals for judging the PMs market. The massive amounts of world debt is getting harder and harder to service due to rapidly rising interest rates and default is the fear for investors and debt issuers. There will be a time when investors stop buying debt and reach for a safer investment. That time is fast approaching. ATB Speedy

Ok its all more evident today than last week

Because oh boy has the bond market has gone ballistic the past week BUT gold!!! GOLD just will not go down.
Markets are fully in crash mode Russel 2000 Nasdaq SP500 the DAX all falling.
Today we have Dollar Up 0.3% US T10 yields up 1.8% to a area of 4.5% which is right at the top end of the range, and gold has hardly budged from that wedge.

Meanwhile oil is Up 40% in a month.

Highly unusual to get Dollar UP Bonds UP and Gold UP.... But here it is earlier today :



The standard technical USD correlation are breaking down agin = Paradigm shift underway.




So what does this mean>>> ???

1) you have inflation up and breaking higher (oil up an off the dial in the 90s when it should be the 30s) Meanwhile Biden has drained the SPR.
2) You have the next GDP number- which will be positive 'one more time' given Biden's mahoossive public spending program.
3) Then you have Government departments running out of money everywhere - like in the UK Councils eg Birmingham - going bankrupt and Government Shutdowns

The US Sovereign Credit Risk is now rising and Faster than for 100 years. This is why central banks bought more gold and are still owning and still buying more gold than since the 1960s - because they are all worried about the Worlds' most pristine safe haven asset formally: the US Government Treasury ( and by extension the US Dollar).


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-e ... ecord-high

And who would have imagined that the 10 year Treasury yield could risen over 812% (in around 18) months and over 1300% from the covid low ...? That's the fastest rate of change of interest rates in History. And it's reaping untold damage on assets like commercial property and equities across the US economy. The bond market is forcing the FED.... higher for longer. Becuase inflation is not in control.

Well that didn’t work out well or as as hoped /anticipated.

POG breaking down lower is frustrating but still ok - reflecting the US traders / market finally accepting “higher for longer mantra”.

And the bond market playing hardball with a weakening FED. Powell just took a bloody nose from the bond markeyX they called him out as liar.

But there’s also a key mathematical gold tail support in play here…

gold should hold $1817 - that’s a key price.

Just Like the DXY holding 100.3 - that was also the key bullish long term tail support figure in play -, which is a high ‘mathematical probability’ (and way more useful than any chart or moving average)! and which I detailed previously here:

viewtopic.php?p=4419#p4419

Of not the DXY bounced to 106.4 this week. Because it’s bullish trend which underwent a bearish trade formation within that bullish trend. Gold is in the same boat.

I think it’s fair to say there’s quite a lot of professional folks totally baffled by this market.

Best explained by The power of social media, YOLO retail traders…. and ODTEs.

Market always doesn't do what you think it will until it does.

It wasn't clear what the trigger for gold was but now we have it: Wars on two fronts and and a US bond market imploding.

Market almost always doesn't do what you think it will, until it does >>>> rapidly.

It wasn't clear what the trigger for gold was but now we have it: Wars on two fronts and and a US bond market imploding.

This 2 year chart of the XLF the US financial sector ETF tells you EVERYTHING you need to know about what's coming...



If / when this breaks lower than 30 its free fall time for the banks

Risk happen slowly and then all at once.

Nice to see the Hedgefund intel that I share on here is totally spot on :

"Gold tail support" price was nailed by them back in September.

Note

"gold should hold $1817 - that’s a key price" Sat Sep 30, 2023 9:12 pm

It hits it 3 times. Then drops through very briefly then Whooom !!!

Otherwise known as a fake down. Amusing how the narratives are all - "oh higher interest rates are bad for gold"

Until they don't matter at all >>>>> Until suddenly Higher rates are good for gold... FFS.

If you didn't know: The market was set up by design to screw YOU out of YOUR stock> Should you not be fully aware of this fact you basically need to take a cold bath.

And If they - And there is a 'THEY' - can do it to gold and the Nasdaq; they can sure as hell do it to GGP...