ActusRay short position - looks in trouble..IMO

[Hydrogen]

Yup you bet it is ... I know you think I'm a bit obsessed by shorts, but their movements have had a disproportionate effect on the GGP's share price due to the way AIM sets its price.

AND I'll bet this recent massive L&G 114m purchase is what pushed the ActusRay 27m 0.53% short position over the declarable 0.5% threshold.

My logic is as follows: IMO the ActusRay short position has been open and under the threshold for ages.. - certainly months - becuase, unless 27m show up on ortex loan today - according to ORTEX, there have been no major increases in reported stock on loan recently whosoever - not for months.

In fact, - if anything, a significant reduction 70m to 50m since middle of last year - and it's my opinion that ActusRay have been driven out from under the report threshold to declare, quite unexpectedly , by this pretty massive and unexpected 114m L&G buy: Which means they are massively underwater and averaging down. Specifically - there have been no significant changes to ortex in January - certainly not 27m added... if anything 9m closed. So I think that is almost conclusive.

That said 5.6m were added to Ortex today (Thurs 18th Jan) but this simply corroborates my theory - they had to borrow and short more in order to try and keep a lid on price.

I do love it when shite short is underwater - so, I thought I'd look into this ActusRay outfit further: I concluded, pretty quick they are new kids on the block and given the pretty ugly performance of their other shorts, they are in fact pretty rubbish at it. (Notwithstanding and given the collapsing global stock market - that's a pretty dire performance, frankly (RUSSEL 2000 DOWN 20% cycle to date and CHINA composite index DOWN WHAT 25% ? )

Just look at their present record... 2 of 5 open short positions appear massively underwater. Saga and CRST (just opened) maybe break-even, but FORT went REALLY badly wrong... and so far and NCC is a TOTAL disaster.

Regarding NCC look where they entered - Doh !

Same for FORT

This outfit look like a bunch of muppets IMO and they are about to lose their shirts. ActusRay are simply far more underwater than it appears and 27m is pretty tricky to buy back.

[‘96dc2]

Their position could be looking worse today.

[ManFromUruguay]

Perhaps yesterday and today they are closing?
I recall Bamps stating on LSE recently that they typically sell then buy fairly quickly?

[Hydrogen]

That was very odd yesterday 61m volume reported on Yahoo and Trading view and 9m on other platforms.

Short selling on borrowed time? Banned in china yesterday.
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/17 ... hw1aA&s=08

[Ivan66]

That was very odd yesterday 61m volume reported on Yahoo and Trading view and 9m on other platforms.

Short selling on borrowed time? Banned in china yesterday.
https://x.com/FinanceLancelot/status/17 ... hw1aA&s=08

I put a line on a thread here when it was happening, nobody answered. Friday's trading saw a disparity with tradingview unusually showing a much higher volume, while the likes of ADVFN/HL were hugely under reporting the daily volume. That as far as Im concerned I have never seen before. It balanced out toward the end of the day.

[Ivan66]

I still have no idea how this situation occurred, as the LSE reported volume that day was about 14m. Clearly at odds to the 61m recorded by tradingview.

Yahoo managed the same 61m.


Any clues @hydrogen ?

[Hydrogen]

No not on this one. The price movements today just feels like more order filling.
I guess this is the process as institutions take over

[Ivan66]

No not on this one. The price movements today just feels like more order filling.
I guess this is the process as institutions take over

Since this disparity became apparent, it hasn't happened since. There were three days or so where it appeared something was occurring with the trading, beyond its normal daily back and forth. Ranging. I have asked Tradingview if they were aware of any data stream issues with the company on that day, they haven't got back to me yet.

The range we were in since August 2022 of 7.2p - 8.6p is still king. There was a lot of selling effort from 10p down over, I guess the ring sting got ontop of them. Now back under 8.6p and into the old range, the trading is just flowing back & forth. Still no sign of them reducing however.

When we got the news of Actus Rey I marked their disclosed short positions on the resepective companies. Their Saga position being the best one for the moment.



As Steve Todoruk once said of the Lassonde curve, "And then there is the orphan period, between discovery and production, when not much is happening and nobody wants to buy the shares"

There is no doubting where the company currently is right now.

[Hydrogen]

So they are getting spanked in Saga now too

[Ivan66]

NCC Group

[Ivan66]

Forterra



The remainder of their positions are moving sideways

[Hydrogen]

I hope Actus Ray have seriousy deep pockets.... because this doesn't look good

They are barely in profit with millions ££££ on the table... Up at Saga what could be £17m (?) but getting whacked at First derivatives down £14m (?) Ouch!


https://shorteurope.com/details_all.php ... ed_kingdom

The GGP position is elsewhere on the site for some reason. https://shorteurope.com/details_company ... ed_kingdom

GGP 26m shares at 8.8p (from 10th Jan = just £2.25m worth) up 10-15% - but buying 5m yesterday took GGP up 5% !!!

NCC short opened at 26-28 Sep 23 at circa 100-110p NOW closed as of 22-31st Jan at 118-130p (lost 20%) Ouch.

FORT 13 Oct 2023 at 135p (still open) FORT at 179p (Down 32.5%) imo unless they added a lot somewhere

SAGA 0.7% 21 Jul 2022 178 presently 113p (up 36%) or £17m

Now we come to Crest Nicholson....

Crest - 30 Oct 2023 0.5% short at 160p then increasing to 0.7% but SP today 250p a whopping 56% down on the initial position. er... ffing Ouch

£60m down. And get this ; they are totally screwed because there's an ongoing bid from Bellway homes to buy Crest at much higher prices than the AR shorted them - they opened at avaerage of 195p...

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/shor ... mited.html



https://www.londonstockexchange.com/new ... n/16519013

And some talk of a 300p bid for Crest from Bellway: because Avante came in at £2.90
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 50050.html

A £3 bid - That's going to blow them up IMO on a £400m position due by the 11th July - ie Thursday..

These punks could be in deep trouble AND big time

And we didnt even get to the NCC position £27m down on that too.

50-70% up % form the lows last year (and a solid chart to boot at NCC)

What are these mugs doing?

They just went into S4 Capital at 45 to 50p Very late in the game frankly. S4 was £8.50 a share not that long ago so.... not a massive call. and could equally blow up.

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/shor ... mited.html

[Ivan66]

Good viewing as far as I'm coincerned.

[Ivan66]

The current trading range of 7.10p to 7.5p has been respected since the 22nd May , it doesn't often breakthrough it, but when it does there is good pressure applied to bring it back inside the range. Today has seen the sp staying above the range, Lets see if it holds up.

[James]

Position opened on Capricorn Energy (CNE), too.

[Ivan66]

Position opened on Capricorn Energy (CNE), too.

I have added it to my list James, Do you know when ?

[James]

Position opened on Capricorn Energy (CNE), too.

I have added it to my list James, Do you know when ?

Looks like 8th July.

[James]

Just noticed they’ve upped their short on S4 Cap from 0.7% to 0.82% - this was disclosed 9th July.

It’s really not going well for them.

[Ivan66]

Thanks James, The S4 Capital short position is an interesting one. Current SP is lower than when it all started in 2016. I'm guessing they're betting on it folding up.

[Hydrogen]

Crest Nicholson up another 1.86% today. 1.9% ie the wrong way on a £4m short position already 40% underwater has to keep hurting - and unless Bellway back off there is now way out for Actus Ray..

I mean could you pick a worse entry ffs...? Maybe your are right @James - maybe Bellway homes or an intermediary hired ActusRay to keep a lid on Crest. Or, maybe they are just terribly bad at shorting...?

Personally i'm more inclined to think they were trying to short based on charts technicals, going after gold and house builders - but just totally misjudged the macro.

They went in big when they thought the charts were pointing 'lower' which happened to be the bottom of the market for 'rate sensitivity' like house builders.