(hence Shaun's cryptic tweet last week?) - https://x.com/GreatlandGold/status/1803960424208986546)
Get ready, because pretty sure this deal is going to blow the doors off .. some very clever people, tracking certain 'sources' have been speculating some sort of raise is coming - all speculation at this stage. The obvious question is how big or dilutive.. (which seems to panic investors on AIM who misjudge Shaun Day) . "How on earth can GGP buy 100% of Hav and build it..? “Confetti Day” - the naysayers bleat, over and over.
Remember we are in bed with big boys now: Wyloo Tribecca you name it. Multi millions are at stake.
FACT: We know Wyloo ARE likely against dilution at low levels. As stated. But we've also just been provided with a info that categorically supports my previously articulated argument regarding GGPs leverage (contained within the ROLR) finally being executed.
https://www.usfunds.com/resource/major- ... -industry/
BofA last week suggests Newmont will be taking payment for Telfer and Hav in cash AND (GGP) shares..
The implications of this cannot be understated. There are 3 key points : 1) There is no other 'competitor' for Telfer (the note discusses the 'competitive' nature of the other Newmont deals). But 2) most of all it implies TRUST. Newmont solidifies their TRUST in Shaun and GGP to deliver Havieron. They are willing to take an equity stake in the future of GGP and value of the project (they obviously believe in it).
This IMO is an absolutely massive win win - presumably Newmont will be in no rush to sell their paper, they acknowledge and realise the power of the existing JV and ROLR and they will be publicly supportive of Shaun and the company . Some discussed Newmont retaining a royalty over Hav - I think I alway knew Shaun would NEVER easily buy that. He's openly stated he wont dilute the asset of Havieron with a Royalty.
3) it also means very minimal 'real world' dilution.
Heres' the thing : Newmont taking shares, in lew of payment, frees up $$$$ cash to build out the remaining parts of Havieron. It also suggests to me that any capital raise is going to be at a premium ( in line with Wyloo's stated wish to avoid dilution ). If limited equity goes to direct to Newmont and a bunch of Oz pension funds then that should freeze out any shorts from getting 20 to 40m shares on the cheap hopefully
Given Telfer's massive reclamation liability and apparent short mine life, I came to an approximate valuation of somewhere $350m to 450m for the combined 70% plus Telfer . Further, it could be less, given the overwhleming leverage of the ROLR and lack of any competitive bid.
Just looks at Skeena's massive rerate a few days post funding announcement.
NOW we get to the combined revaluation of the whole company:
THe Latest GGP MRE upgraded Hav was a $1.2bn NPV adding i quote "$1bn in value". OF NOTE: We are currently valued at 1x NPV - for a reason
Developers at the bottom of the cycle are usually valued at 0.5x to 0.8x NPV pre equity raise at acquisition. As per skeena. Our problem that the market figured out was that the HAV NPV was distorted by Newcrest's gamesmanship . New Found gold is valued at 1xNPV - most probably due to strong expectation of delivery
So just where exactly does HAV sit on this list of the world's top 10 knock out gold development projects based on NPV..?
https://www.mining.com/web/these-are-th ... velopment/
My estimate is somewhere between 4th and 6th place globally ( Depending on the eventual final Capex and AISC from the DFS)
So that implies a valuation of 0.8 x NPV of greater than 1.2bn ( because the combined entity will be worth more )
Here are some commnets about the valuation of Marathon gold by Tylor dart:
Currently we trade at just about 1x NPV - 30% of 1.2bn… (ignoring NCM's plainly daft PFS). Typically, bargain basement developers miles away from free cash trade at 0.4x – 0.50x NPV (5%) at the bottom stage of the development cycle. Even assuming just 0.40x NPV (5%) and a more ... we would have 8.4moz + plus a FULLY repaired Telfer plant with say another 1 moz so circa 9.4moz resource - AND THIS IS KEY - which at the present Mcap would value GGP at $56 per resource oz and $106 / for indicated (vs average stated above by well known analyst TAYLOR DART at $143/oz and $204/oz) and WITH obvious potential room to go higher to $290/oz M&I based on recent transactions (due to open nature of the resource, start of mine life, runway to cash, existing funding, 100% ownership, and further, relatively, low capex hurdle and fully permitted plant etc etc )
Oh and the 30% increase in gold price.
If we returned to 1x npv that's immediately a > $1.2bn / 6.8b shares = $17c US or 15p
BUT according to Taylor Dart 9.4moz x $204/oz = $1.344bn GGP mcap
AND 9.4Mox x 295/Oz = US $ 2.8bn GGP Mcap or 55p/share
- Get ready for the Re-rate
No wonder SCP just upgraded us: (note after their top up
![Rolling Eyes :roll:](./images/smilies/icon_rolleyes.gif)
" What we like about Greatland is the quality management team and board, a 30% stake in a tier-1 Aussie gold project (>10 years at >225kozpa no matter how we scope it), and financial backing from Twiggy Forrest to build a mid-tier.
AND thats just based on our existing 30% of a SLOS.
Add to that a SLC or expanded SLOS to 9Mt and SCP puts a $5bn Auz NPV on 100% of Hav
That's a whopping 7x the current MCAP.
Funny that what SCP cannot directly model: (because it's all speculation presently) But they cannot price the direct impact on the SP of gaining 100% of Hav on the cheap to GGP - but however, I think in focussing on Hav 100% basis they are trying to at least to hint at it.
That is the biggest catalyst. Gain a 100% then drop a knockout DFS.
Good luck all watching this unfold is certainly not like watching paint dry.