GGPChat

So indications are the deal is reputedly 'done'..

(hence Shaun's cryptic tweet last week?) - https://x.com/GreatlandGold/status/1803960424208986546)

Get ready, because pretty sure this deal is going to blow the doors off .. some very clever people, tracking certain 'sources' have been speculating some sort of raise is coming - all speculation at this stage. The obvious question is how big or dilutive.. (which seems to panic investors on AIM who misjudge Shaun Day) . "How on earth can GGP buy 100% of Hav and build it..? “Confetti Day” - the naysayers bleat, over and over.

Remember we are in bed with big boys now: Wyloo Tribecca you name it. Multi millions are at stake.

FACT: We know Wyloo ARE likely against dilution at low levels. As stated. But we've also just been provided with a info that categorically supports my previously articulated argument regarding GGPs leverage (contained within the ROLR) finally being executed.




https://www.usfunds.com/resource/major- ... -industry/

BofA last week suggests Newmont will be taking payment for Telfer and Hav in cash AND (GGP) shares..

The implications of this cannot be understated. There are 3 key points : 1) There is no other 'competitor' for Telfer (the note discusses the 'competitive' nature of the other Newmont deals). But 2) most of all it implies TRUST. Newmont solidifies their TRUST in Shaun and GGP to deliver Havieron. They are willing to take an equity stake in the future of GGP and value of the project (they obviously believe in it).

This IMO is an absolutely massive win win - presumably Newmont will be in no rush to sell their paper, they acknowledge and realise the power of the existing JV and ROLR and they will be publicly supportive of Shaun and the company . Some discussed Newmont retaining a royalty over Hav - I think I alway knew Shaun would NEVER easily buy that. He's openly stated he wont dilute the asset of Havieron with a Royalty.

3) it also means very minimal 'real world' dilution.

Heres' the thing : Newmont taking shares, in lew of payment, frees up $$$$ cash to build out the remaining parts of Havieron. It also suggests to me that any capital raise is going to be at a premium ( in line with Wyloo's stated wish to avoid dilution ). If limited equity goes to direct to Newmont and a bunch of Oz pension funds then that should freeze out any shorts from getting 20 to 40m shares on the cheap hopefully

Given Telfer's massive reclamation liability and apparent short mine life, I came to an approximate valuation of somewhere $350m to 450m for the combined 70% plus Telfer . Further, it could be less, given the overwhleming leverage of the ROLR and lack of any competitive bid.

Just looks at Skeena's massive rerate a few days post funding announcement.

NOW we get to the combined revaluation of the whole company:

THe Latest GGP MRE upgraded Hav was a $1.2bn NPV adding i quote "$1bn in value". OF NOTE: We are currently valued at 1x NPV - for a reason

Developers at the bottom of the cycle are usually valued at 0.5x to 0.8x NPV pre equity raise at acquisition. As per skeena. Our problem that the market figured out was that the HAV NPV was distorted by Newcrest's gamesmanship . New Found gold is valued at 1xNPV - most probably due to strong expectation of delivery
So just where exactly does HAV sit on this list of the world's top 10 knock out gold development projects based on NPV..?
https://www.mining.com/web/these-are-th ... velopment/

My estimate is somewhere between 4th and 6th place globally ( Depending on the eventual final Capex and AISC from the DFS)

So that implies a valuation of 0.8 x NPV of greater than 1.2bn ( because the combined entity will be worth more )

Here are some commnets about the valuation of Marathon gold by Tylor dart:
Currently we trade at just about 1x NPV - 30% of 1.2bn… (ignoring NCM's plainly daft PFS). Typically, bargain basement developers miles away from free cash trade at 0.4x – 0.50x NPV (5%) at the bottom stage of the development cycle. Even assuming just 0.40x NPV (5%) and a more ... we would have 8.4moz + plus a FULLY repaired Telfer plant with say another 1 moz so circa 9.4moz resource - AND THIS IS KEY - which at the present Mcap would value GGP at $56 per resource oz and $106 / for indicated (vs average stated above by well known analyst TAYLOR DART at $143/oz and $204/oz) and WITH obvious potential room to go higher to $290/oz M&I based on recent transactions (due to open nature of the resource, start of mine life, runway to cash, existing funding, 100% ownership, and further, relatively, low capex hurdle and fully permitted plant etc etc )

Oh and the 30% increase in gold price.

If we returned to 1x npv that's immediately a > $1.2bn / 6.8b shares = $17c US or 15p
BUT according to Taylor Dart 9.4moz x $204/oz = $1.344bn GGP mcap
AND 9.4Mox x 295/Oz = US $ 2.8bn GGP Mcap or 55p/share

- Get ready for the Re-rate

No wonder SCP just upgraded us: (note after their top up ) Greatland is included in Sprott's selected overview of precious metal companies by SCP research - price target increased from 14p to 16p https://bpd-space.nyc3.cdn.digitalocean ... update.pdf

" What we like about Greatland is the quality management team and board, a 30% stake in a tier-1 Aussie gold project (>10 years at >225kozpa no matter how we scope it), and financial backing from Twiggy Forrest to build a mid-tier.

AND thats just based on our existing 30% of a SLOS.
Add to that a SLC or expanded SLOS to 9Mt and SCP puts a $5bn Auz NPV on 100% of Hav
That's a whopping 7x the current MCAP.

Funny that what SCP cannot directly model: (because it's all speculation presently) But they cannot price the direct impact on the SP of gaining 100% of Hav on the cheap to GGP - but however, I think in focussing on Hav 100% basis they are trying to at least to hint at it.

That is the biggest catalyst. Gain a 100% then drop a knockout DFS.

Good luck all watching this unfold is certainly not like watching paint dry.

Interestingly enough, I have just been discussing this EPA application dated 27th May 2024. It is a Newcrest application, as it has been on all the other applications. What intrigued me was searching the website for Havieron & Telfer brings up the list of Newcrest applications. The most recent describes mining ore at Havieron, and processing it at Telfer.

So that decision has already been made? Certianly does to me, why else submit and enter into a very expensive licence process. This is all happening in plain sight.


If we do become a takeover target, Wyloo/Tribeca will surely head that off and block it. We have nobody else playing their hand publicly wishing to buy Telfer, or Greatland. Because as far as I am concerned, the appearance of Shaun Day wasn't a mistake as the new CEO. This deal we are getting closer to reading about, was driven by someone who can see around corners, SD took post and the idea to align the emerging Havieron mine with the Telfer mill was already the wider plan, cetainly within a few months of him settling into the post.

Our current board still does not fit a tiny junior, Nor do they fit a Northern Star MK2 operation, SD can do that himself. This is a much bigger game being played, by much bigger players.

Of course I may also be entirely wrong, so please ignore everything I write.





https://www.epa.wa.gov.au/proposals/tel ... ng-project

I forgot to add, the cryptic tweet from Shaun Day..........

https://x.com/GreatlandGold/status/1803960424208986546


The website in the short video clip (Greatlandgold.com.AU) hasn't been taken as a domain name, It isn't theirs, anyone can still register it as their own. That domain isn't online.

However the domain Greatland.com.AU has been taken and isn't currently online.


I can't recall ever seeing any spelling mistakes on any Greatland tweets or documents. ? Probably my suspicious nature.

Sprott Capital Partners just revalued the NPV of Hav alone at > $5bn Auz on a 100% basis

Fully diluted that's approx 7x the current Mcap 40p - 50p / share

You can see now why the 'Mugs' posters like Havingthelasttoast constantly refers to, held on like WW11 concrete.

Because if they'd had sold out (and this has fallen back to 2-3p or whatever) GGP IMO would have been long gone by now.

Taken out permanently. Of that, I'm certain.

And that was the objective with the JPM Short and ladder trading.

Give yourselves a clap LTH

Because you guys and gals prevented that outcome. YOU helped forge our future ( by holding on against massive pressure of paper losses).

You took the hit. AND You got the chance to top up in the 6s and 5s - You will now enjoy the spoils. I make it 15-18p immediately he secures 100%

Fantastic research and opinion as ever Hydro - thank you.
You, Paddy and Bamps are the reason I invested all those years ago at 1.28p as you stated opinions so clearly that it was easy to do my own research to get all the verification I needed. Pleasingly I was not alone and a true underbelly of Lthers was formed which as you say have held firm (by and large) to provide stability to GGP. Appointing Shaun who in turn appointed a “super BoD”, sourced supreme financial backing from Twiggy and Wyloo plus 3 top Banking organisations and then outmanoeuvred Sandeep Biswas was all the icing on the cake. Like you I hope this all now points to a cataclysmic rise back to glory but my thanks go to you, Paddy and Bamps in the main.

Appreciate that Redirons.

It's been a very deliberate rollercoaster IMO in part designed to break GGP shareholders because they believed - and there is a they (ie NCM's now defunct and probably fired BDU) - because the company was 85% in PIs hands and 'they' thought that might enable them to get Havieron cheap.

Just to be clear, exactly what takes Havieron NPV to $5bn Auz? Well it's just a document isn't it. Thats all. The publication of a validated expanded DFS document.

Unsurprisingly, another valid document, originally slated to be released back in October 2022 (post 5% coincidentally) has also been rather 'mysteriously' delayed...

You literally couldn't make it up. The battle for Havieron sure was a fascinating story.

I called him Freddy Krueger, from the start, for a reason...

I smelt that scumbag out within about 5/6 posts. Paid to sow misery and constant doubt - I mean who the fu*k "invests" in a share and then moans about how rubbish it is, daily, for over 3.5 years..?

You press the sell button and a milli second later 'bingo' you're 'out'. It's that simple Krueger.

Unless, of course, that is not your genuine belief or motive.