A* prediction for Freddie, Plode and Pedro et al

[Hydrogen]

Gold will go absolutely nuts, end of November or very early December.
Hedge funds are poised and will buy gold and bonds hard very soon

I have seen detail inflation data analysis that shows CPI stays elevated until at least November next year. The market thought inflation would roll over but it hasn't. High embedded inflation, combined with low growth and high rates kills markets…

But critically, the long term correlation between gold and the US$ is now seriously breaking down.

The data attached (courtesy of HedgEye) illustrates the long term correlation with gold and the USD. The further it gets from 1 the more the correlation relationship breaks down and the more the $ loses its relative value and footing to gold.

As you can see, the rate of change of the correlation breakdown is also increasing. The rate of change has increased dramatically over the past 30 days. Make no mistake it's the 'rate of change' that matters here. This provides the spring board for the next gold bull run.

Moving from a long term $/Au correlation average of -0.83 (over 180 days) and a 120 day correlation of -0.93 .... to -0.73 recently, over the past 30 days to just -0.6 on Friday tells you everything you need to know about the relative, magnetic attraction of gold.

Oil is getting less valuable over the long term vs gold which is increasing in value, relative to the US$.

IMO this is critical. Gold is a veblen good.. The more it increases in value the more desirable it becomes... It's an early sign that the market is now absolutely favouring gold over USD$ on a relative basis. And categorical, empirical evidence of strong support for the next Gold break out, after the US dollar rolls over and the US T10 bond rates peak (probably in November 2022)

This is why the US market collapsed on Friday. Investors thought the jobs report could be bad, and that would be good for inflation rolling over and signal the fed pivot.

Not this month I'm afraid. Rates will keep rising until the FED causes a huge recession and then they Pivot, maybe in the spring.

Nothing, literally nothing else, other than gold and bonds are investable in a world of high sticky inflation and no/low/negative growth (recession).

Just in time for DFS and decision to mine.

All IMHO.

[Hydrogen]

Ex Fed guy Says:

"Bond yields can't rise indefinitely without raising financial stability concerns".

"There is a central bank put on bond prices (otherwise we all going back to the stone age). That put went in the money in the UK, perhaps Eurozone is next".

“A portfolio manager at one of Germany’s largest insurance companies said, “It’s a global margin call. I hope we survive.”

https://twitter.com/FedGuy12/status/1579209739229360128

[Hydrogen]

Got Gold ...?

It's coming....

Toxic bank [BoE] must consume all. Nobody else wants it, in fact they all want to dump it all the lot. Debt Bid Liquidity is gone, if you are not short you never will be. Yours truly the TLT Short caller Aug 2020. Debt system in death knell

https://twitter.com/themarketsniper/sta ... 1581442048

[Hydrogen]

What does it tell you when US yields go up (USTs go down), $ goes down and gold goes up? It could be a one-day fluke but if this becomes a trend, it would imply someone selling USTs and selling $'s to buy... That someone is someone pretty big.

As Luke Groman put it: " I do not recall ever before seeing GLD outperform TLT by nearly 500 bps in a single trading day."

November is here..

Tick tock.



Get used to it.

[Hydrogen]

End of November getting closer Gymplode and muscle Boys ... Better get the bosses to close their shorts ( only 61m to recover ).

I mean... What you gonna do when the herd arrives?

An interesting day. Many gold short positions were taken out by some very heavy buying in gold and silver....

Of note also the US$ potentially breaking down... and the 2year and the 10 Year Yields were both up overnight. No sign of a fed PIVOT....

But crucially.... This could signal a break from recent traditions - ie Gold rising with interest rates...

And whilst gold and silver rocketed ... we think thanks to Japan dumping $billions of USD Forex to defend the Yen....

Bitcoin quietly just fell off a cliff....

Very Interesting action.

[Hydrogen]

End of November is getting closer Boys ... Better get the bosses to close their short pronto ( only 61m to recover ).

I mean... What you gonna do when the herd arrives ?

An interesting day. Looks like loads of gold short positions were taken out by some very heavy buying in gold and silver....

Of note also the US$ potentially breaking down... the DYX at 109 is a signal ....
and the 2year and the 10 Year Yields were both up overnight. No sign of that fed PIVOT.... higher for longer rates, implies higher for longer inflation, which will of course crush growth/tech stocks and zombie companies.

But crucially.... This could signal a break from recent traditions - ie Gold rising with interest rates...

And whilst gold and silver rocketed ... we think thanks to Japan dumping $billions of USD Forex to defend the Yen....

….Bitcoin quietly just fell off a cliff.... so much for digital gold.

Very Interesting action.

[Hydrogen]

So.... Gold Breakout end Nov early december...? Fell nicely, as predicted. Bang in the top bins, especially for Plode...

As gold puts in another big higher low, in the chart.
That’s as bullish a chart… as they come!

So there’s CPI this week…. Oh crickets not more gold slamming? Well, I don’t think so.

I’m expecting 7.52.. Wall Street expecting 7.3
So if CPI hotter than expected = recession risk = gold up
If CPI lower = dollar down = gold up and stocks up

Which all likely means higher rates for longer and certainly no FED pivot, but also probably means negative real rates for much longer. That’s the optimum situation for gold. ANd gold is basically heading for the Goldilocks zone dead ahead…hence the bullish chart.

The market is telling you something…. Load up on gold and PM - because there’s a profits recession and negative real rates coming.

GGP has to turn bullish soon... Seller is out. And we’re 20-30% to make up. GDXJ Loading up.
And somebody just let slip theres a 9.4moz MRE incoming...
Apparently they're "all chatter in the Patterson..." so it's probably even factually correct.
Could've been a typo, I suppose, but that's a pretty big and odd typo. (Even for me).

And almost exactly what I was expecting - ie circa 50% increase from 6.5moz MRE.
My money was on 9.6moz, but I'd kinda hope Shaun was planning to lift it to 10moz - just for the fun of it . And for Sprotts Stevie T.

6.5moz >>>>> 9.8moz = 50% increase, more or less perfectly proportionally in line with the 4.2 to 6.5moz uplift at MRE2.
(... but remember Shaun was under pressure to come in conservative that time, for fear of pushing his luck with the independent valuer).

Now however he's free.... to do as he wants to do!!!! Or whatever works best.

No wonder Bana, Big Lizzy and Sir Jimmy 'heels click' Wilson, landed so early.
Slamming their on market buys in the next few weeks, I'd expect.
Jeez at under 10p what a gift?
Never felt safer with my ggp than today…
Good to see a load of positive new faces arriving at LSE to drown out the dross.

Dolep?!? Love it.

All my musings …

[Hydrogen]

[zoros]

Still waiting for the tsunami effect after the shorts begin closing? Oh - they have.....................

Z

[Hydrogen]

No need to be a total **** Zoros...

You have no idea whether they've closed fully or not. You are as in the dark as I am, about the actual open short position. But It's Somewhere between 27 and 61m that was on loan (just a few days ago ) and they were forced to return 30m to Vaneck for this rebalance.

They cover their tracks, they hide, they fox, overplay their hand and manipulate the boards... Plus it's difficult for us to compete with a short seller that appears to have inside information about NCM tactics. An no-one apart for them could predict how badly NCM would behave over the 5%. They blatantly have done everything possible to smash PI sentiment (eg the 3 x 5m sells when Shaun steps up to the stage in London etc ) to bring the SP down to this level..

I'm still here because I know this goes a lot higher. I know the gold market boom has really only just begun. And I know the Macro says buy gold and miners till it hurts now...

As long as I still see Plode and Toothless Bruce et al posting incredulous and ludicrous twaddle on LSE... I know they still have stock to buy back. Trouble is the macro has now turned against them. A huge tech profits recession is coming .. and fund managers will be buying gold stocks hard all next year as they have to deploy capital somewhere, ( what do you buy during a recession...? - You guessed it Bright Spark... )

This is why they have a problem, and are still very active to recover the stock.

And for the record... You do not know what game or rules they play to ( and neither do ) IN the end it is all speculation.

But I do know we had distressed seller who sold about 30m thanks to JPM's tactics (who is now fully out). Hence we're still at the ludicrous price 7.5p earlier this week prior to Vanceck's buying (this week), where really we should be a good 20-30% higher. We have a decent amount of catching up to do to the wider market.

Unfortunately, due to their direct market access the shorts / JPM seem to be able to buy millions just under the ASK. We were targeted by crooks and banksters because the stock went up too much, when Blackrock and Vaneck bought their 100s millions...

But at 8p now we are grossly, grossly undervalued... Given we are fully funded and Havieron is 15moz minimum.

Also Any chance you could change your rather inappropriate 'Z' logo? It makes me feel slightly sick every time I see it. Thanks Pal

[Bamps21]

That Z moniker is definitely not appropriate in these awful times

[zoros]

Give it a rest Hydro.....perleeeeze.
You've been banging on about the shorting for months if not years and yet the SP hasn't moved. You rabbited on about watching this space when the time came for them to reverse out of the shorting, that the SP would sky rocket.
Stock on loan is at an all time low and suddenly....................................nothing has happened.
Drone drone drone....
Z

[CK 1974]

Judging by the likes and the content of hydros’ post’s compared to most of yours I’d say could you give it a rest please zoros. Just saying

[zoros]

There you go Bamps - just for you.
Z

[Bamps21]

That is disgusting

[zoros]

What is??? You've lost me now.
I've changed my icon.........
Z

[Spondy]

Hi Zoros.

Unless you're out to antagonise I'm wondering where you've been this year. To help you, it is the use of the Z in your icon/avatar and to sign your posts. The Z is the insignia of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and could imply that you are a supporter. If you are not then to use it is somewhat, even if unintentionally, inappropriate.

[zoros]

That's why I've changed it spondy?
Or would you like me to change my surname too - to placate everyone?
Z

[Hydrogen]

Gold features strongly.... in HEDGEYE'S TOP 3 THINGS this AM

3) GOLD – There’s always a bull market developing somewhere – Gold Up +0.5% with USD and Rates Up this morning is super bullish – when was the last time we wrote “super bullish” about something? (never). Gold Volatility < 15 is what gets that characterisation.

Massive bull market regardless of interest rates.

We've 100% reached that point today where gold and interest rates rise together. I flagged a long time ago there comes a point when rates and gold rise together....

Yet The Hawkishness everywhere is palpable the FED ECB etc... and the GOLD is STILL rising. You have to get your head around the importance of this critical factor.

It wasn't suppose to happened this way. But it did. Gold is up with volatility still very low (around 14). when you think about the full investing cycle gold is bang at the heart of Quad4 - but Hedge EYE say "you need a signal to confirm that".

The volatility of the volatility of gold, is the best signal by far. And it has landed.

Be very careful out there... People on LSE trying hard to con you out of your shares.

Good luck all....

[Hydrogen]

Gold features strongly.... in HEDGEYE'S TOP 3 THINGS this AM

3) GOLD – "There’s always a bull market developing somewhere – Gold Up +0.5% with USD and Rates Up this morning is super bullish – when was the last time we wrote “super bullish” about something? (never). Gold Volatility < 15 is what gets that characterisation".

Massive bull market regardless of interest rates.

We've 100% reached that point today where gold and interest rates rise together. I flagged a long time ago there comes a point when rates and gold rise together....

Yet The Hawkishness everywhere is palpable the FED ECB etc... and the GOLD is STILL rising. You have to get your head around the importance of this critical factor.

It wasn't suppose to happened this way. But it did. Gold is up with volatility still very low (around 14). when you think about the full investing cycle gold is bang at the heart of Quad4 - but Hedge EYE say "you need a signal to confirm that".

The volatility of the volatility of gold, is the best signal by far. And it has landed.

Be very careful out there... of note... People on LSE trying hard to con you out of your shares I see. Spreading unfounded FUD. We're heading into the mother of all profit recessions. The oil price tells you everything you need to know about demand destruction.

But what can you buy in a recession... GOLD

Good luck all....